Columnist Jeff Haney: ‘Dead’ reckoning

Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2004 | 10:21 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

When Ted Sevransky told a crowd of sports bettors at the Stardust on Friday night that he'd be backing Oregon against Washington in a Pac-10 matchup, it wasn't because he loved the Ducks.

It was because he loathed the Huskies.

Sevransky figured Washington for a "dead" team -- one that's out of contention in the conference standings, has no prayer for a bowl bid and couldn't cover a point spread if its life -- or even its revenue-sharing program -- depended on it.

Particularly at this time of the year, bettors look to cash tickets by playing the bully, or piling on against dead teams.

"Finding a team to fade (bet against) is just as good as finding a team that's worth backing," said Sevransky, a professional handicapper and six-year resident of Las Vegas.

Sevransky was making his play against Washington as a contestant in the Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament. Oregon did cover and Sevransky finished with a 4-3 record against the spread, but he was defeated in the single-elimination event by his opponent, Big Al McMordie, who also went 4-3 but advanced by virtue of hitting his best bet.

A year ago, Sevransky went 15-5-1 in the invitational before being knocked out in the semifinals. Much of his success has come from identifying laggers and pronouncing them dead -- a process that's equal parts art and science.

"My definition of a dead team is simply a team that has just stopped trying," said Sevransky, who is online at whocovers.com.

"They'll often have a lame-duck coach whose staff is more interested in sending out resumes than game-planning for the next opponent."

After weeks of speculation, Washington announced Tuesday that coach Keith Gilbertson will step down after the season. The Huskies are 1-7 overall, 0-5 in the Pac-10 and 0-8 against the point spread after losing 31-6 to Oregon as a three-touchdown underdog.

Although oddsmakers also work to identify dead teams and doctor the betting line accordingly, Sevransky said with a truly dead team they rarely can move the number far enough.

"You are losing some value as the line on these teams gets adjusted, and adjusted and adjusted some more, but often you'll see that it doesn't seem to matter," Sevransky said. "You'll see a line go from 21 to 22 to 23 or 24, and the dead team will end up losing something like 34-3."

It helps that the oddsmaker is usually forecasting a blowout in games involving dead teams. A three-point line move from 21 to 24, for example, is less significant than a move from 3 to 6 -- the closer the predicted final score, the more valuable each point in the line becomes.

Sevransky also relies on a couple of key statistics in analyzing a team's vital signs.

The first category he examines is a team's yards-per-carry, both offensive and defensive.

"With a dead team you'll see abysmal numbers in their rushing statistics," Sevransky said. "And these numbers won't be influenced by one big rushing play; it will be a consistent 5, 6, 7 yards allowed for each carry. Once you see that two or three weeks in a row, that's an indication a team might be dead."

The second category is a team's turnover differential, which can indicate sloppy play.

"If there's a large turnover differential week in and week out, that tells you a team's offense is giving up the ball too much and the defense is incapable of going out there and making up for it," Sevransky said.

While he does try to spot dead National Football League teams later in the pro season, Sevransky said dead teams are more common in college football.

In addition to Washington, Sevransky has several other teams on a death watch. Among them are Ball State, Southern Methodist, Idaho and Western Michigan.

WMU seems especially likely to join the ranks of the dead. The Broncos are 1-7 overall, 0-5 in the Mid-American Conference and 2-5 against the spread. They're 30-point underdogs Saturday at Bowling Green.

Although it did cover against Central Michigan on Saturday, Western Michigan blew a big late lead and suffered a dispiriting straight-up loss. And WMU coach Gary Darnell created a minor firestorm when he called Central Michigan's fans "drunks." Darnell is "not likely to be back next year," Sevransky said.

Other teams that might look dead at first glance still have some life in them. For example, Temple -- a perennial also-ran so pathetic it was thrown out of the Big East effective the end of the season -- has managed to cover the point spread in its past three games and is 4-3 ATS on the season.

Breeders' Cup bad beat

The Daily Racing Form reported that one Ultra Pick Six ticket was alive going into Saturday's featured event at Lone Star Park, the Breeders' Cup Classic. The ticket had two horses listed in the Classic -- Roses in May and Pleasantly Perfect. They finished second and third to Ghostzapper, a result that demolished what would have been a ticket worth more than $2 million.

Going five-for-six on the ticket paid just over $56,000, which was likely small consolation for the mystery bettor, who nailed three big long shots on the card leading to the Classic. To make the setback even more painful, Ghostzapper went off as the betting favorite.

Stardust contest

In the second round of the Stardust Invitational, Brent Carter meets Trace Fields at 9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust race and sports book.

A sampling of college football teams that handicappers might consider "dead" this season, and therefore worth betting against in their remaining games:

TEAM: Washington Huskies.

THE SKINNY: 1-7 SU, 0-5 Pac-10, 0-8 ATS. 3.50 rushing yards per carry (ypc), 4.49 rushing yards per carry allowed (ypca). Minus-14 turnover differential on the season, minus-13 in the past four games. Head coach Keith Gilbertson will step down at the end of the season.

THIS WEEK: Favored by 1 1/2 against Arizona on Saturday.

REMAINING SCHEDULE: Nov. 13: vs. Cal. Nov. 20: at Washington State.

TEAM: Southern Methodist Mustangs.

THE SKINNY: 1-7 SU, 1-4 WAC, 0-3 ATS past three games, outscored 127-20 past three. 3.20 ypc on the season, 5.42 ypca. Minus-20 turnover differential.

THIS WEEK: 11 1/2-point underdog against Tulsa on Saturday.

REMAINING SCHEDULE: Nov. 13: vs. UNR. Nov. 20: at UTEP.

TEAM: Western Michigan Broncos.

THE SKINNY: 1-7 SU, 0-5 MAC, 2-5 ATS. 3.21 ypc, 4.73 ypca. Minus-13 turnover differential. Coach Gary Darnell came under fire for calling Central Michigan fans "drunks" last week and could be on the hot seat.

THIS WEEK: 30-point underdog at Bowling Green on Saturday.

REMAINING SCHEDULE: Nov. 13: vs. Miami (Ohio). Nov. 20: at Marshall.

TEAM: Ball State Cardinals.

THE SKINNY: 1-8 SU, 1-5 MAC, 3-6 ATS. 3.00 ypc, 4.97 ypca. Lone victory came against Western Michigan.

THIS WEEK: Off.

REMAINING SCHEDULE: Nov. 13: vs. Central Florida Nov. 20: at Central Michigan.