Reid in position to assume leadership if Daschle fails

Benjamin Grove and Suzanne Struglinski

Monday, Nov. 1, 2004 | 11:07 a.m.

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., may be watching South Dakota's Senate race as closely as his own.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., is in a tight contest with former Republican Rep. John Thune. If Daschle loses, Reid, now the assistant minority leader, or minority whip, would stand a good chance to take his place if re-elected.

Reid said he was not preparing for a Daschle loss. Reid declined to discuss whether he is already working behind the scenes to shore up support for his own bid should Daschle lose.

In September Reid donated $1 million of his campaign money to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. His chief of staff, Susan McCue, said he was not looking beyond Nov. 2 but wanted to help elect outside Democrats.

But it is generally known in Congress that lawmakers stand an increased chance of advancing in leadership and on committees if they are generous with colleagues and the party in campaign contributions.

Reid said he talks regularly with Daschle, even when Congress is out of session, and was in touch with Daschle's top staffers via e-mail last week.

All indicators point to a Daschle win, he said.

"That's the only thing on my mind right now," Reid said. "Tom Daschle and I have had a partnership for 22 years. He's like a brother to me."

Democrats who remained in Washington last week were hesitant to even speculate about the possibility that Daschle could lose.

Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the 2002 race between Thune and South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson was a "dress rehearsal" for this race, and the Democrats won. Polls still show the race as close but Woodhouse said Daschle will win.

If he doesn't, however, Reid is the likely shoo-in to replace him at the top of the pecking order, said UCLA political science professor Barbara Sinclair, Senate expert and author.

No one else appears to be making a leadership bid, although Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., whom Daschle defeated for the job in 1994, has shown an interest, according to Capitol Hill publications.

"Reid has done a lot of the work of essentially guarding the floor and quite a bit of the negotiating," Sinclair said.

The matter of lining up support for a leadership bid is a delicate one, given Reid's friendship with Daschle, Sinclair said. Because Reid laid the groundwork for a bid when Daschle considered running for president, there is not much for him to do until immediately after the election, she said.

"I'm sure that he has all the phone numbers so he can call his colleagues right away," Sinclair said.

There is much for current and future Senate leaders to watch on Election Day; at least eight Senate races are said to be close in a chamber with 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one Independent.

But South Dakota may be the closest race of all, with the highest stakes -- for Reid and his Democratic colleagues.

"I would still bet on Daschle, but I sure wouldn't bet the mortgage money," Sinclair said.

Right now senators are concentrating on their own races or stumping for their party's presidential candidate, but as soon as the results are known, the next phase begins.

"The phones will heat up," said Tripp Baird, director of Senate Relations at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. He said some issue may have been worked out before the election and now those vying for positions are just waiting.

Baird said election watchers are not paying attention to individual Senate races just to see who wins, but to see how those wins will influence the breakdown of the 100-person chamber. The "magic numbers," Baird said are 41 and 60 members, because 60 votes can override a block on a pending vote but 41 could leave the other party's ability one vote short.

If Daschle loses, Baird said, Reid would be the obvious choice.

"He's carried enough water down there to have a good shot at being leader," he said. "He's lived on the floor and he drives Republicans crazy."

Being leader comes with a lot of power and a lot of control, but Baird said Reid would have to deal with balancing his loyalty to the party with those of a state that is not 100 percent Democrat.

He said Daschle faces many of the same problems now because South Dakota is also a conservative state.

David Keating, executive director of Club For Growth, said if Daschle loses, Reid may think being leader is not such a good idea.

"There may be some risk in being a lightning rod symbol of the Democratic Party coming from a state like Nevada," said Keating, whose group focuses on electing "free-market" members to Congress. "It's a risky political move."

If Daschle wins, Baird would not expect anyone to challenge him for the spot.