Columnist Jeff Haney: Bettors, oddsmakers strive to get a feel for new ballparks

Wednesday, May 26, 2004 | 9:43 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Las Vegas author and handicapper Andy Iskoe posts betting information on his Web site, thelogicalapproach.com.

The Imperial Palace has posted over/unders on the 2004 season win total for each NFL team.

Three teams sit atop the list with an over/under of 10 1/2 wins: the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts and Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. Bettors who wish to play under the 10 1/2 must lay a premium on all three teams. With the Colts, it's a heavy premium: The line on Indianapolis is over 10 1/2, plus 120; under 10 1/2, minus 150.

(Minus 150 means that bettors must lay $1.50 for each $1 they want to win. Plus 120 means bettors win $1.20 for each $1 they wager.)

Oddsmakers expect the Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons, who each went 5-11 a year ago, to show marked improvement this season. Each team's over/under total is 9 wins at the Imperial Palace, with Washington minus 130 on the over and Atlanta minus 120 on the over.

Oddsmakers and bettors seem to agree that the San Diego Chargers are the dregs of the NFL. The IP opened San Diego at 4 1/2 wins -- a full game lower than any other team -- with a line of minus 135 on the under.

And early money showed up on the under: The current price is under 4 1/2 wins, minus 150; over 4 1/2, plus 120.

Stadiums where "overs" have ruled in 2004 ...

1. Citizens Bank Park,

13 overs to 5 unders

2. Oriole Park at Camden Yards,

15 overs to 7 unders

3. Metrodome,

13 overs to 7 unders

4. SBC Park,

13 overs to 8 unders

... and leading "under" parks so far:

1. Kauffman Stadium,

5 overs to 12 unders

2. SkyDome,

8 overs to 14 unders

3. Wrigley Field,

8 overs to 13 unders

4. Turner Field,

7 overs to 11 unders

(Through Monday's games. Pushes are disregarded.)

SOURCES: covers.com, Vegas Insider odds archive

OVER/UNDER: A wager on whether the total number of points scored by both teams will be above or below a particular number. A synonym is "total," as in "The Packers are favored by 7 points; the total is 44."

PRICE: Another word for odds.

PUSH: A tie as far the point spread is concerned.

SIDE: One team or the other in a particular game, as opposed to the over/under in the game.

STRAIGHT BET: A wager on just one team, as opposed to a parlay or other exotic bet.

Some media reports have painted Petco Park as a paradise for pitchers, a place where runs are as hard to come by as a snowfall in San Ysidro.

Not necessarily so, says Kenny White, Las Vegas' top oddsmaker.

Petco, the newly opened home of the Padres in downtown San Diego, will likely show only a minor bias toward pitching and defense, White said.

"This San Diego ballpark is not going to be like Dodger Stadium," said White, referring to Chavez Ravine's heavy, thick air and ample foul territory that severely limit run production.

As the leading oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which provides betting lines to sports books in Nevada and around the world, White creates over/unders -- or "totals" -- for the number of runs scored in each major league baseball game.

Whenever a new baseball stadium opens -- this year there are two of them, Petco and Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park -- bettors scramble to determine whether it favors pitchers or hitters, overs or unders.

While Padres fans -- and even some San Diego players -- have focused on the daunting 411-foot power alley in right-center field at Petco, from a betting perspective the new park is close to the league average one-quarter of the way through the season.

In 22 games at Petco, 11 have gone over the posted total; 10 have gone under; and there was one push. And those totals have not been freakishly low. The average over/under at Petco so far is 8.09 runs. In four of the past six games there, the total has been set at 8 1/2 runs, a typical number for the National League.

"It looks like 8 or 8 1/2 will be a pretty good figure for this ballpark," White said.

Petco's perception as a pitchers' park could stem from early-season slumps that plagued several of the team's high-profile hitters, White said.

"Some of the big Padres bats are left-handed," and those players have had to adjust to Petco's wide-open spaces in right field, White said. Left fielder Ryan Klesko, for instance, has only one home run this season, and right fielder Brian Giles managed only five hits in his first 45 at-bats.

Games at Citizens Bank Park, meanwhile, are 13-5 in favor of the over, with a couple of pushes.

In April it was common to see totals of 7 1/2 in games at Citizens Bank Park. More recently they have been in the range of 9 to 10 runs, and White expects those totals to continue rising as a hot, sticky summer begins to smother South Philadelphia.

"We'll see some more 10 1/2's as soon as the weather gets better there," White said.

Las Vegas author and handicapper Andy Iskoe, who keeps close tabs on baseball totals, said he likes to wait until later in the season before reaching a verdict on new stadiums.

"There's always a rush to be the first to make a conclusion on what kind of biases a stadium may have," Iskoe said. "Probably, statistically, you have to wait several seasons to make a determination.

"But no one wants to wait several seasons. No one wants to wait even several weeks. ... But when you're looking at only one-quarter of a team's home schedule, that's an awfully small database."

While the Phillies have allowed an average of 4.65 runs per game at home and 3.91 runs on the road, they have scored 5.32 runs per game on the road, compared with just 5.15 at home.

The Padres have been more productive offensively away from Petco, scoring an average of 3.86 runs at home and 5.32 runs on the road. They have allowed an average of 4.18 runs at home and 4.23 runs on the road.

Iskoe said that while he is reluctant to label Citizens Bank a hitters' park or Petco a pitchers' park, he does not mind if the typical baseball bettor does so.

"If the (gambling) public has that perception, that perception will be reflected in the (betting) line," Iskoe said, "and that could create value in the line."

Indy 500

For good odds on a couple of top contenders in the Indianapolis 500, check the board at the Venetian.

The Strip resort had Helio Castroneves available at 5-1, and Tony Kanaan at 8-1, to win Sunday's race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Both prices were among the best in town on those drivers. Most other Las Vegas sports books had Castroneves anywhere from 2-1 (Leroy's) to 9-2 (several properties), and Kanaan from 4-1 (Leroy's) to 7-1 (Stations).

Stations had a juicy price of 12-1 on Dan Wheldon, whose odds ranged from 5-1 to 9-1 elsewhere.

Among other notable prices, pole-sitter Buddy Rice was 20-1 at Stations; Scott Dixon was 25-1 at Harrah's; Robby Gordon was 25-1 at Terrible's; and Al Unser Jr. was 35-1 at Stations and Harrah's.

NBA playoffs

Coast Casinos properties are offering a reduced-vigorish special throughout the NBA playoffs. Bettors can lay 105 -- rather than the standard 110 -- to win 100 on both sides and totals, straight bets only, on NBA playoff games.

Triple Crown

If you think Smarty Jones will go off at odds of 1-5 in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 5 -- as some horseplayers do -- you'll find value in a prop currently on the board at Bally's, Paris and the other Caesars Entertainment properties. Smarty Jones is minus 225 to win the Belmont and complete the Triple Crown; it's plus 185 that he will not win.