Races to keep an eye on

Friday, May 21, 2004 | 6:11 a.m.

WEEKEND EDITION

May 22 - 23, 2004

Here are some thumbnails on races to watch in Campaign '04:

But the Democrats believe that by using Yucca Mountain and the president's dissembling on the issue as the linchpin, they can win the state. Yucca Mountain alone won't do it, most observers agree. But in synergy with the incredible antipathy Democrats -- and now some independents -- feel for George W. Bush, they might have a chance. One interesting question: Will Bush, who snubbed Las Vegas in Campaign 2000, actually come here this year and answer questions about Yucca and more?

The presidential race will play a large role here, too. If John Kerry runs strongly in this suburban district, Gallagher has a chance.

Sen. Shaffer's sojourn in Hawaii during the second special session is a dynamite campaign issue, but his party switch and the partisan advantage (5,000 voters) for the Democrats are equally or more significant.

Horsford has the clearest base with the Culinary union helping him. But if four black candidates split the black vote and the white contender, Terri Malone, gets the white vote, she will be the next state senator from that district.

Heck is the gaming industry's bullet designed to slay O'Connell under the theory that if the head dies, the body withers. The body in this case is the band of insurgents that looked to O'Connell last session -- Barbara Cegavske and Sandra Tiffany and, perhaps, Mark Amodei -- that the gamers and other Establishment folks believe will be nothing without O'Connell.

It will be interesting to watch how much support GOP caucus boss Bill Raggio gives to one of his own -- one of his own who has said he should give up power and who has supported his critics, Tiffany and Cegavske.

That debate, which we barely heard in Carson City, will play out in Senate District 6, where Assemblyman Bob Beers, the spiritual leader of the so-called Mean/Fearless Fifteen, will take on state Sen. Ray Rawson. This is a classic case of money vs. grass roots, of a simple message (no taxes) vs. a more nuanced ones (new taxes but for a reason).

The Establishment has thought of all manner of legerdemain to help Rawson survive and extend his long career, including a Democratic plant who would withdraw to ensure the race would go to the general election where Democrats would choose Rawson -- a plan foiled (so far) by a third-party candidate filing that relegates the Beers-Rawson duel to the primary. Methinks even his friends think Rawson is in trouble.

Chad Christensen's bid to get re-elected against the gaming-anointed Justin Jones; CPA Kirk Kaplan against Valerie Weber; Debbie Smith's rematch with Don Gustavson; and Bonnie Parnell's attempt to take her old seat from Ron Knecht.

Redistricting done in 2001, when the Democrats controlled the Assembly by a solid margin, still makes that party the favorite to maintain control. But some of those districts are not totally safe and give the Republicans hope, including against Democratic incumbents Marcus Conklin and Kathy McClain, who is hampered by being fired from her county job.

If the Republicans can successfully demagogue the tax issue, they have a chance. But clearly most of the Democratic incumbents are safe and the party has a few opportunities to pick up seats.

Kincaid-Chauncey has a chance to win the Democratic primary against Assemblymen Tom Collins and Vonne Chowning, but she faces a well-liked GOP opponent in North Las Vegas Councilwoman Shari Buck. It's still a very Democratic district -- by 7,000 voters -- so Buck is by no means a shoo-in, even if Kincaid-Chauncey is her general election opponent.

This district, too, is overwhelmingly Democratic (by 7,000 voters) and some believe Goldwater has a huge advantage because of the GOP primary, the voter numbers and his campaign team and its access to contributors. But Boggs McDonald is not to be underestimated, especially because she has the power of incumbency and she loves to do town halls. She still has to be the favorite.

In one contest, Washoe Judge Jim Hardesty is easily the most qualified and will raise the most money. But could two former lawmakers, including a current judge (Dianne Steel), benefit from their gender and southern roots? And Don Ashworth also has a very recognizable family name from Southern Nevada, which can't hurt.

In the other contest, Judge Ron Parraguirre got in at the last minute to replace Deborah Agosti as the Establishment's choice. Lake Tahoe attorney John Mason, who predicated his entire strategy on pummeling Justice Agosti on the two-thirds decision, now has to run on, well, nothing much except having a lot of money and having some entertainment industry friends since he has never been a judge. And once again, the southern factor could help Justice of the Peace Doug Smith, who will be a factor.