Wednesday, May 19, 2004 | 9:47 a.m.
Jeff Haney
Teams to watch
Three teams that have more wins than expected this season, according to Bill James' Pythagorean formula. A bettor who uses sabermetrics might conclude that these teams are playing over their heads and that there could be value in betting against them:
Actual number of wins: 23
Expected number of wins (or number of wins they "should" have, according to James' formula): 19.5
Actual number of wins: 22
Expected number of wins: 19
Actual number of wins: 25
Expected number of wins: 23
(Through Monday's games. The formula: expected winning percentage = runs scored squared divided by runs allowed squared plus runs scored squared)
Pitchers to watch
In "Betting Baseball: A New Approach," Michael Murray calls "command rate," or strikeouts divided by walks, the strongest of four tools he uses to analyze starting pitchers.
If a pitcher's rate is under 1.0 -- that is, if he has walked more batters than he has struck out -- he is "primed for a fall," according to Murray.
Here are some pitchers scheduled to take the mound in coming days who fall into this category (although many factors go into handicapping a baseball game, looking to bet against such pitchers could be a viable starting point):
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