Snapshot at the window: Plannin’ for a fall

Wednesday, May 19, 2004 | 9:47 a.m.

Jeff Haney

Teams to watch

Three teams that have more wins than expected this season, according to Bill James' Pythagorean formula. A bettor who uses sabermetrics might conclude that these teams are playing over their heads and that there could be value in betting against them:

Actual number of wins: 23

Expected number of wins (or number of wins they "should" have, according to James' formula): 19.5

Actual number of wins: 22

Expected number of wins: 19

Actual number of wins: 25

Expected number of wins: 23

(Through Monday's games. The formula: expected winning percentage = runs scored squared divided by runs allowed squared plus runs scored squared)

Pitchers to watch

In "Betting Baseball: A New Approach," Michael Murray calls "command rate," or strikeouts divided by walks, the strongest of four tools he uses to analyze starting pitchers.

If a pitcher's rate is under 1.0 -- that is, if he has walked more batters than he has struck out -- he is "primed for a fall," according to Murray.

Here are some pitchers scheduled to take the mound in coming days who fall into this category (although many factors go into handicapping a baseball game, looking to bet against such pitchers could be a viable starting point):