June isn’t too early to be handicapping

Wednesday, June 23, 2004 | 9:37 a.m.

Jeff Haney

ATS: Stands for "against the spread," referring to a team's performance with regard to the point spread as opposed to straight-up wins and losses.

HOOK: A half-point in the point spread. If the spread is 3 1/2 points, that "extra" half is called the hook.

PICK 'EM: A game in which the two sides are evenly matched; neither is favored according to the oddsmaker. "Pick" for short, but never say "pick them."

PUSH: A tie as far as the point spread is concerned. Wagers are refunded.

STEAM: Heavy betting action on one side of a game. Also used as a verb: "The line was 7 1/2 and it steamed all the way to 10."

Some bettors use the following basic formula, or a variation of it, to make their own betting line for an NFL game. The Las Vegas professional sports bettor known as Fezzik (fezziksplace.com) has written about and, to an extent, popularized this method:

Example: Sunday, Sept. 12, Jets vs. Bengals. We expect the Jets to win 8.75 games and the Bengals to win 7.5 games. The difference, 1.25, times 3 equals 3.75. The Jets' home field advantage is worth 2 points, so our estimated point spread is 5.75 points. The Las Vegas line is 4 points. This suggests there could be value in taking the Jets, and that the line is more likely to go up to 5 or 5 1/2 than down to 3 1/2 or 3.

Sharp bettors use formulas such as this to try to find small edges against the oddsmaker.

If your lines differ significantly from those at the sports book -- for example, you determine a 7-point underdog should actually be a 7-point favorite -- then either a) you are significantly more skilled than the world's top oddsmakers (not likely), or b) you made an error somewhere in your calculations (likely).