Columnist Jeff Haney: Formula Won for the NFL: Make your own line and unlock Week 1 secrets

Wednesday, June 23, 2004 | 10:06 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

May 12 -- Understanding baseball's dime line

May 19 -- Sabermetrics and the wagerer

May 26 -- Betting the new ballparks

June 2 -- Books rooting for the Lakers

June 9 -- Casinos and the Super Bowl

June 16-- The U.S. Open golf championship

Today -- Week 1 in the NFL

Next week -- Worst things about Vegas betting

The two heaviest favorites in the first week of National Football League action should be favored by even more points.

Take the Kansas City Chiefs as an underdog in the Mile High City.

Grab the hook with the Jacksonville Jaguars while you still can.

And you would not, in fact, be out of your mind to lay more than a field goal with the Houston Texans.

Those are some of the conclusions you'd reach if you rely on a basic formula that some gamblers swear by (see "snapshot" at right for explanation) in creating their own betting lines for NFL games.

A mere 78 days remain until the NFL's regular season begins -- meaning it's prime time for analyzing the Week 1 point spreads, which are already up at a couple of Las Vegas sports books. The Imperial Palace and the Palms were the first to post Week 1 lines.

Based on the results of that linemaking formula, here's a rundown of some highlights from the Week 1 NFL board:

Games of Sunday, Sept. 12 ...

It's possible, however, the line could drift slightly higher, driven by gamblers following another pattern that states small home favorites traditionally fare well against the spread in the season's first week.

WNBA wagering

The Women's National Basketball Association is growing up, at least from a betting perspective.

In the earlier years of the WNBA, powerhouse teams such as the Houston Comets, the Los Angeles Sparks and the New York Liberty dominated their competition while hogging much of the media attention devoted to the league.

It wasn't unusual to see the league's marquee teams favored by double digits, even in road games.

Handicappers, sensing a great divide between the league's top and bottom echelons, did not hesitate to lay points -- even a lot of points, even on the road.

That tale has changed over the past couple of seasons in the WNBA.

In the 2002 and 2003 seasons combined, road favorites were 47-53 against the spread (disregarding pushes), and favorites of 9 or more points were 15-23 ATS.

Perhaps even more telling, for the past couple of years WNBA teams that performed well against the spread one season have been good "go-against" teams the following season:

If form holds, bettors might expect to cash tickets this summer by going against last season's ATS moneymakers: the Detroit Shock, Sacramento Monarchs and Minnesota Lynx, who were a combined 70-47 ATS (59.8 percent).

In the early going of this season, that trio's ATS performance is already faltering: They are a combined 11-13 overall ATS (45.8 percent), and 6-8 ATS (42.8 percent) as favorites. Games in which these teams faced one another are not taken into account.

(This study ignores the Portland Fire, which did well against the spread in 2002 before the franchise abruptly folded. Sources: Jim Feist's team logs, Vegas Insider's odds archive.)

Betting lines on WNBA games are posted at many Las Vegas casinos. The regular season runs from May through September.

British Open

Open champ Retief Goosen is a 16-1 shot to win golf's next major, the British Open, according to Las Vegas oddsmaker Jeff Sherman. Goosen was 25-1 to win the U.S. Open. Tiger Woods is listed as a 6-1 favorite to win the British Open, set for July 15-18 at Scotland's Royal Troon Golf Club.

Sherman has joined the sports book staff at the Las Vegas Hilton after recently leaving a similar position with the Palms.

Shaq props

Shaquille O'Neal has reportedly demanded a trade from the Los Angeles Lakers, and offshore bookmakers haven't wasted any time setting odds on which team will acquire him. According to Antigua-based World Wide Tele-Sports, it's a 3-1 shot O'Neal will start next season with the Dallas Mavericks, and it's 9-4 he'll be back with the Lakers. Other options: Magic, 5-1; Grizzlies, 11-2; Pacers, 15-2; Trail Blazers, 9-1; Knicks, 25-1; any other team, 3-1.