Wednesday, June 16, 2004 | 10:07 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
May 12 -- Understanding baseball's dime line
May 19 -- Sabermetrics and the wagerer
May 26 -- Betting the new ballparks
June 2 -- Booksrooting for the Lakers
June 9 -- Casinos and the Super Bowl
Today -- The U.S. Open golf championship
Next week-- Week 1 in the NFL
The Web site golfodds.com, operated by Las Vegas oddsmaker Jeff Sherman, contains information on golf and golf betting.
Las Vegas sports handicapper Jay Ginsbach is online at fairwayjay.com.
HANDLE: The total amount of wagering dollars accepted.
MATCHUP: A wager in which bettors choose one side or the other in a head-to-head pairing. Examples: which of two golfers will finish higher on the leader board in a tournament; which of two horses will beat the other in a horse race.
NEEDLE IN A HAYSTACK: Slang term for a type of wager in which the bettor selects one winner or outcome at fixed odds in an event with many possible winners or outcomes, as opposed to an event -- such as a football game -- with just two likely outcomes. Examples of "needle in a haystack" bets would be picking the winner of a golf tournament or an auto race, or the first player to score a touchdown in a football game. Many sharp bettors disdain "needle in a haystack" bets because they usually afford the house a large advantage.
PROP: Short for proposition wager. Any exotic, unusual or offbeat betting opportunity outside the realm of straight bets, parlays and teasers. Example: Betting on whether anyone will get a hole in one in a particular golf tournament.
Not long ago, oddsmakers were quick to install Tiger Woods as the heaviest of favorites to win any golf tournament he entered.
The Las Vegas line on Woods was routinely set in the range of 2-1, 3-2, or even 6-5, whether it was to win a major championship or one of the myriad events with the word "Buick" in its title.
Yet bettors continued pound Woods at the windows, and it was easy to understand why: Woods won nine PGA tour events in 2000, and his 2001 Masters victory gave him four consecutive major titles.
Oddsmakers resorted to tactics such as pitting Woods against the entire field -- with a betting line fairly close to even money on both sides.
Since the 2002 U.S. Open, however, Woods is 0-for-7 in major championships -- a slump that has been subjected to much scrutiny and speculation in the golf world.
And oddsmakers have responded in turn: In this week's U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., Woods is a 4-1 shot to win the title, according to Jeff Sherman of golfodds.com.
Oddsmakers with Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Woods even higher, at 9-2.
In most Las Vegas sports books, though, Woods has been bet down to 7-2 or lower to win the U.S. Open, which begins Thursday morning. His odds are as low as 5-2 in some spots, including the Imperial Palace.
"In some people's eyes there is some value in that (4-1 range)," said Sherman, a leading Las Vegas golf oddsmaker. "We haven't seen the dominance from Tiger that he used to have, but he has placed third, fourth and third in his last three tournaments.
"We're going to see a fair amount of bets placed on him" to win the U.S. Open, Sherman said.
Sherman said the public's interest in betting on golf has not waned even with Woods' slump. Woods' storied run in the late 1990s was credited with sparking interest in golf betting, which previously had been relegated to the fringes of the gambling universe.
"The handle has been steady," Sherman said. "As the list of people who have a chance to win a tournament has expanded, the money (wagered) has become more spread out over the field.
"It's (no longer) just Tiger being the big favorite. A lot more golfers are factored into the equation now."
No official numbers are kept on how much money is bet on golf in Nevada sports books; the state Gaming Control Board lumps golf in with sports such as auto racing and soccer in a category affectionately known as "other."
But for major championships in particular, Las Vegas casinos set up a world's fair of betting opportunities in their sports books.
For this week's U.S. Open, Sherman created lines for 25 proposition wagers and 12 head-to-head matchups.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants also issued a series of matchups and props, including one that asks bettors to determine the top finisher in the U.S. Open among the so-called "Fearsome Foursome" of Woods, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh. Woods is a 7-5 favorite; Els is 2-1; Mickelson and Singh are each 3-1. The prop is available at several casinos, including Harrah's.
Sports handicapper "Fairway Jay" Ginsbach of Las Vegas said matchups and props represent the best value for golf bettors. Trying to pick the overall winner of a tournament -- an example of what's sometimes called "needle in a haystack" betting -- is difficult because of the hefty house edge built into the betting line, Ginsbach said.
"I have never seen any value in betting Woods to win, especially not at 2-1 or 3-1," Ginsbach said. "I would not advise betting him to win even at 4-1.
"If I'm going to back Woods, I'm going to focus on the matchups or yes/no propositions such as whether he'll finish in the top 3."
Though he won't be betting the favored Woods to win outright, Ginsbach said he is not predicting any shockers in the U.S. Open.
The past six major championships have been won by players who had never won a Grand Slam event, but "I think that streak will get broken this week," Ginsbach said.
Among the longer shots in the field, Ginsbach said, 2003 Masters winner Mike Weir and former UNLV standout Chad Campbell could be worth a look.
Weir is a 30-1 shot and Campbell is 25-1, according to Sherman's odds.
"Shinnecock Hills is wedged up between the Atlantic Ocean and the bay, and the wind is usually a fairly big factor in the outcome and the scoring," Ginsbach said. "Weir has the ball flight to play in the wind and an underrated short game. ... Campbell also has the game to do it."
For Woods and the other U.S. Open hopefuls, driving accuracy will be crucial on the challenging Shinnecock course, said Sherman.
"Tiger's main weakness recently has been his driving ability," Sherman said. "Like anyone else, he has to keep his drives on the fairway."
NBA Finals wrap
In finishing off the Los Angeles Lakers 4 games to 1 in the NBA Finals, the Detroit Pistons also cashed tickets for their backers throughout the series.
Detroit was 4-0-1 against the point spread in the Finals if you count Game 2 as a push. The Lakers won that one 99-91 after closing as 8-point favorites in most betting shops.
Three of the five games went "under" the total posted in sports books, and two went "over," including Tuesday night's finale in which the Pistons cruised, 100-87, as 3-point favorites. The total Tuesday opened at 169 1/2 and was bet up to as high as 171 1/2 in Las Vegas.
The total in Sunday's Game 4 landed the closest to the number of any game in the Finals and illustrated the value of shopping for the best line: "Over" bettors who grabbed a 168 early escaped with a push, though most betting slips in Las Vegas were written in the range of 169 to 171, making the "over" a loser when the Pistons prevailed 88-80.
In their emphatic win in Game 5 on Tuesday night, the Pistons also won the battle of the individual player propositions.
At sports books around town, including Station Casinos, bettors could wager on a set of matchups involving who would have more combined points, rebounds and assists in Game 5:
Presidential props
Recent reports in the local and national media have spotlighted the Democrats' efforts to capture Nevada's electoral votes in a bid to unseat President Bush.
If you rely on the political adage of "follow the money," however, you'll find the President is a solid favorite to carry the state in the November election.
Gamblers -- excuse me, contract traders -- have established a bid price of 63.8 and an ask price of 65 on Bush to take Nevada, according to the latest line at TradeSports, an exchange based in Dublin, Ireland.
That means Bush is the equivalent of a minus 185 favorite to win the electoral votes of Nevada. (Bettors would wager $185 to win $100 plus their original stake back for a total payout of $285.)
Nevada narrowly supported Bush in the 2000 election.
Wagering on politics is not permitted here.
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