Race books pull out all stops with Belmont props

Friday, June 4, 2004 | 9:27 a.m.

A proposition that combines boxing and horse racing -- a rarity in the realm of betting -- is among the offbeat wagering opportunities available on the Belmont Stakes in Las Vegas race and sports books.

The prop at the Mirage and related properties asks bettors to predict the outcome of Saturday's Belmont, in which Smarty Jones is shooting for the Triple Crown, and Saturday night's middleweight title fight between Bernard Hopkins and Robert Allen at the MGM Grand.

If Smarty Jones wins the Belmont and Hopkins wins the fight, the prop pays off at odds of 5-16. If Smarty wins and Hopkins loses, the bet pays 8-1; if Hopkins wins and Smarty loses, it's 3-1. The odds on both losing are 28-1.

The Mirage books and the Imperial Palace are offering props on how many lengths Smarty Jones will win by -- or lose by.

At the IP, Smarty Jones winning by:

Another prop at the IP asks if any horse will win by 3 lengths or more. "Yes" is minus 190; "no" is plus 150. In another prop, Smarty Jones to lose by more than 3 lengths is plus 400.

Horse vs. horse matchups in the Belmont and an over/under on the time of the race were expected to be posted today at Bally's, Paris and related properties, a Bally's representative said. Horse vs. horse matchups were also expected to go up today at Mandalay Bay.

While Smarty Jones certainly should be favored in the race, the odds on him to win offer no betting value, said Dave Tuley, the Las Vegas correspondent for the Daily Racing Form.

The price on Smarty Jones was set at 2-5 after Wednesday's post position draw, and it could go to 1-5 by post time.

"Smarty Jones is absolutely, positively beatable," Tuley said. "You see favorites lose every day in the sports world, and especially in the horse racing world.

"Even the greatest of all time -- Secretariat, Man o' War -- did not go undefeated."

The accurate, or "true," odds on Smarty Jones to win the Belmont are about even money, in Tuley's estimation.

The hype surrounding a Triple Crown bid, along with racing fans buying win tickets on Smarty Jones that they plan to keep as souvenirs, will drive down the odds on the favorite, Tuley said.

"People handicap based on the last thing they see, but just because a horse wins one time doesn't mean he's going to win the next time out," Tuley said. "People want to cheer for a Triple Crown winner, they want their souvenir tickets ... and that's a lot of square (unsophisticated) money."

Purge, the winner of the Peter Pan Stakes, has a decent chance to upset Smarty Jones on Saturday, Tuley said. The 5-1 odds on Purge, however, are not attractive enough to induce a wager, he said.

Master David, starting from the No. 1 position in the Belmont, would be worth a look at 20-1, Tuley said, but not if his odds drift down to the area of 10-1.

Tuley did suggest a way to bet the Belmont that might appeal to more sophisticated horseplayers.

In races such as Saturday's Belmont that feature a favorite with extremely short odds, the dynamics of the "show pool" -- or the money bet on various horses to show -- can become skewed. This is due in part to so-called "bridge-jumpers" -- bettors who figure they can make 5 percent on their money in 2 1/2 minutes by betting the heavy favorite to show, rather than waiting all year to make that same 5 percent in their favorite mutual fund.

So it might be worth a shot to try to beat Smarty Jones and the bridge-jumpers by placing, say, a $20 bet to show on each of the nine starters, Tuley said.

In essence, this is an imaginative way for a bettor who plans to go against Smarty Jones anyway to get the most bang for his buck: If Smarty finishes down the track, you might cash a hefty ticket, as the show prices on the field's long shots could be grossly inflated.

If Smarty wins, you're beaten regardless. You still have three tickets worth at least $63, and you get to savor an historic day in racing. And really, what were you going to do anyhow, bet $4 on the chalk to win 80 cents?