Columnist Dean Juipe: Smart bet is Smarty in Belmont

Dean Juipe

Wednesday, June 2, 2004 | 9:02 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

There's a proposition bet up in the sports book at the MGM in which the wagerer is asked a simple question: Will Smarty Jones win Saturday's Belmont Stakes?

If you think the answer is "Yes," it's a minus 350.

If you think it's "No," it's a plus 275.

I'm surprised the "Yes" portion of the bet isn't a minus 1000, or 10,000 or 1 million.

I think Smarty Jones has already won the race.

I think the reports of his exemplary conditioning have only further intimidated the few horses and riders who are left to challenge him.

I think the world is about to see its 12th Triple Crown champion.

Blame it on a comparatively weak collection of 3-year-olds, or credit Smarty Jones for obliterating his competition, but the confluence of events through the first two legs of the Triple Crown leads to only one conclusion: It would be a huge, huge upset if this horse doesn't win Saturday.

That's fine with me and probably you, too. We're ready for a Triple Crown winner after so many years of near misses.

Since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown in 1978, nine horses have come to the Belmont having already won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Each time we were intrigued.

Spectacular Bid looked like a sure thing in 1979.

Silver Charm seemed almost magical in 1997.

Real Quiet had a legendary persona in 1998.

War Emblem looked as durable as his name in 2002

And Funny Cide had people bubbling just a year ago as the most recent of the likely Triple Crown winners. Yet each stumbled at the Belmont, one (Spectacular Bid) falling victim to a safety pin, another (Funny Cide) having peaked too soon and the others simply unable to hold off worthy competitors during the mile-and-a-half ride.

But Smarty Jones has at least two advantages over those who have recently tried and failed to win all three of horse racing's major events. He's not only the best of the lot, but the lot isn't the best.

It's almost as if Roy Chapman's fellow thoroughbred owners are hard pressed to even mount a challenge. When Smarty Jones enters the gate for the Belmont he's apt to feel carefree, uninhibited and as if it's just him against the clock, as only a handful of horses will be there to see him off.

He doesn't have to worry about being caught in traffic, as the track itself will be as deserted as Vacation Village.

Clogged drain pipes beneath the aging Belmont grandstands will be a greater concern than a clogged field for the grueling race.

Of course Smarty Jones isn't merely a dart in a field of duds, as he showed in winning the Preakness by almost 12 lengths. He's strong, crafty and responsive to jockey Stewart Elliott, having paced himself before surging past front-running Lion Heart in both the Derby and Preakness.

One of only two race horses remaining in Chapman's depleted stable, Smarty Jones has survived a nasty bump on the head (from jumping into a gate before his racing debut) and the shooting death of his first trainer (Bob Camac) to position himself for one of sport's greatest accolades.

A minus 350 to win? This is a horse that has never lost.

He's not going to lose Saturday either.