Columnist Jon Ralston: Shape of campaign to come

Friday, July 23, 2004 | 4:55 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

WEEKEND EDITION

July 24 - 25, 2004

With just over three months until the general election and only 44 days until the primary, we know much less than we should know.

And that's just the way most of the candidates like it -- from the race for the White House to contests for the statehouse.

As summer wanes and the campaigns begin to gear up for the stretch run, expect trivialities and inanities to overwhelm substance and nuance. And that's just the way most voters like it -- motivated by blind anger and willful ignorance (they are easier) rather than thoughtful deliberation and acquired knowledge.

Instead we have frothing over foolishness -- the poor, poor pitiful Linda Ronstadt story is a prime example as is the almost unfathomable debate about how many voters will cast ballots based on a movie. I only pray that the proverbial alien from Mars doesn't alight here now to see how we make our campaign decisions.

On the remote chance that voters might actually want to cast an informed ballot this year, here's a thumbnail sketch of the shape of things to come and how, if you try, you can change that shape. I'll be asking these questions -- as will others, I hope -- in debates during the next 100 days, but you should, too:

Federal: The only contested races here are for president and Congressional District 3.

What we know: The presidential race is close, both parties are spending a fortune in Nevada and fraud could be problematic.

What we don't know: Whether George W. Bush will ever come here to answer questions. Whether John Kerry really expects us to believe he will stop Yucca Mountain.

What you should ask: All other issues being equal, if you are one of the small number of undecided folks left, why shouldn't the question of whether the next president will agree to block any attempt to change the radiation standard for the dump, thus killing the project, be determinative? I'd like to see both go on record.

What we know: Rep. Jon Porter is a low-key legislator who pretty much is a rubber stamp for the party leadership. Tom Gallagher is an ex-casino executive with a lot of money who is hoping to capitalize on Democratic fury in the presidential race to defeat Porter.

What we don't know: If Porter's style is a benefit or hindrance to his effectiveness in the long run. If Gallagher will ever buck the party leaders any more than Porter would.

What you should ask: Whether either man can name a single innovative idea they have and whether they can name one issue besides Yucca Mountain on which they would be independent from the leadership.

Initiatives: There are too many to name. Instead of what this process was conceived as -- a weapon of last resort -- it is now being abused as a weapon of mass organization by both parties. Let's just look at two.

What we know: A bunch of opportunists want to repeal taxes and bring education spending to the national average.

What we don't know: What will happen to the economy if we erase about $700 million in the state budget over the next two years but force the Gang of 63 to fund education to the national average.

What you should ask: What do the tax repealers propose to cut out of the budget? Why do the education spending advocates think lawmakers shouldn't decide what level of funding is appropriate, as opposed to some arbitrary number imposed by this process?

State Senate: The outcome of two Republican primaries could fundamentally change the nature of the GOP Senate caucus, affect who leads the upper house and thus determine what laws are passed. Never have two legislative primaries been freighted with this kind of significance.

What we know: Assemblyman Bob Beers will portray incumbent Ray Rawson as a big spender who even, as Beers' Web site alleges, has used his job to become "personally enriched." Rawson will depict Beers as a person who cruelly wants to cut programs for poor people, even grandparents, and who doesn't care about facts.

What we don't know: What Beers will do if he becomes a senator, including whether he will support a southern leader. What Rawson will do if the tax repeal passes -- what will he cut?

What you should ask: Ask Rawson to explain why he supported the nearly billion-dollar tax increase. Ask Beers exactly what he would have cut.

What we know: State Sen. Ann O'Connell is painting herself as a friend of education and children as well as an anti-tax icon. Her opponent, Joe Heck, is tarring her as a pro-taxer who signed onto more than a billion dollars in tax increases and is responsible for the sad state of education funding.

What we don't know: If Heck really believes O'Connell is a liberal big spender. If O'Connell really thinks she's seen as a friend of education.

What you should ask: Why did O'Connell sign onto those tax bills and vote on some in committee if she eventually took a pass because of her late husband's ties to the banking industry? Why did Heck think a gross receipts tax was a good idea and will he be able to be independent from the gaming/Establishment forces backing his campaign?

That's a start, but I wonder how much good it will do.

What's even more frightening than how little we know right now is how little anyone will want to know as votes are cast on Election Day.