Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Columnist Jeff Haney: Look past the favored Yankees for value in World Series futures

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].

FUTURE BOOK: The list of odds to win an upcoming event, such as the championship game in a sport. Example: "World Series future book." Shortened form is "futures."

HANDICAPPER: Someone who studies and projects outcomes of sporting events.

LONG SHOT: A big underdog.

LOW-ROLLERS: Bettors who routinely wager small amounts of money.

PRICE: Another word for odds.

TAKEOUT: The money that a sports book keeps after paying out to winners on a particular betting proposition, often expressed in percentage form.

June 2 -- Books rooting for the Lakers

June 9 -- Casinos and the Super Bowl

June 16 -- The U.S. Open golf championship

June 23 -- Week 1 in the NFL

June 30 -- Worst thingsabout Vegas betting

Today -- Futurebooks for the World Series

Next week -- Football's games of the year

Bettors who are turned off by the New York Yankees' short odds to win the 2004 World Series can still find some attractive prices among baseball's other leading contenders in future-book wagering.

The Yankees, who own the majors' best record at 51-30, have been the consensus No. 1 team in baseball since spring training -- and that status is reflected on Las Vegas' betting boards.

The Yanks are listed at 2-1 or lower in most Las Vegas casinos to win the World Series. Even sports books that are aggressively managed and feature competitive prices in their future books have been forced reduce the odds on the Yankees -- for instance, the Mirage has them at 9-5, and the Golden Nugget at 7-5.

But the flood of Yankees money has created an opportunity for gamblers willing to try to beat the favorite, to use an analogy from horse racing.

For example, the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants -- running 1-2 in the National League West standings -- can each be found at 20-1 or better in some locations. Those are healthy numbers, considering the Padres are leading the division with a record of 46-37 and the Giants, with two of the game's top players in Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt, are just one game back.

The Texas Rangers, who share the lead in the AL West standings, are 40-1 to win the World Series at several major sports books.

Looking for a long shot special? Check out the Milwaukee Brewers, who are five games over .500 and still very much in the wild-card hunt. They're as high as 300-1 at one local betting shop.

Those particular odds are not available at every sports book in town. Odds to win the World Series -- any future-book odds, for that matter -- vary by casino, and bettors usually have to do some footwork to uncover the best numbers.

Once a week, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that establishes betting lines for most Las Vegas casinos, sends out an updated list of odds on each team to win the World Series.

Those numbers serve only as a guideline, however, as each sports book adjusts its odds according to how much money it has taken on each team.

"We don't take any money (directly from bettors)," said Kenny White, the leading oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "We move our numbers based on how well a team has been playing; if they have been playing according to form; and what we think the true odds should be."

LVSC's oddsmakers also consider the "takeout," or the sports books' built-in hold percentage, White said.

But whenever a sharp bookmaker lowers the odds on one team, he'll raise them on another, hoping to drum up more business -- meaning bettors who shop around can find plenty of value in World Series futures.

So as the odds on the Yankees shrivel, the price on the Red Sox, their AL East rivals, becomes more generous. Boston opened as a 6-1 shot to win the World Series, according to LVSC odds, before dropping to 7-2. Watch for that price to rise as the All-Star break approaches.

"You'll see the odds on the Red Sox go up after they were swept by the Yankees (last week)," White said. "They're looking more like an 8-1 team now."

Some baseball handicappers might place more weight on the recent trade of outfielder Carlos Beltran to the Houston Astros than LVSC's oddsmakers did.

"There was no movement at all (in LVSC's odds) after the Beltran trade," White said. "Houston stayed at 12-1."

The acquisition of right-handed pitcher Freddy Garcia by the Chicago White Sox did cause a ripple, however.

"We moved the (odds on the) White Sox down a bit," White said. "It was not a great move -- just enough. They were 15-1, and we made them 10-1.

"They became one of the top favorites in that division (the AL Central). ... They should be a playoff team, (possibly) going up against the Yankees."

Here is a rundown of the best odds (and a sampling of some of the worst) in Las Vegas on each team still in the pennant race:

YANKEES: The Yanks are 5-2 at the Imperial Palace and Casino MonteLago, and 2-1 or lower everywhere else.

RED SOX: Boston is 8-1 at the Palms. Bosox backers should avoid Harrah's, which has them at 9-5.

DEVIL RAYS: Tampa Bay's recent 12-game winning streak sent its odds tumbling. The Rampart casino, for instance, had the Devil Rays at 777-1 but dropped them to 100-1. Tampa Bay is still 300-1 at the Hard Rock and the Mirage.

TWINS: Minnesota, which has a lead of 1 1/2 games in the AL Central standings, is 30-1 at Casino MonteLago, and also available at 25-1 at the Mirage. No value at El Cortez (5-1).

WHITE SOX: The Pale Hose can be found at 25-1 at the Golden Nugget.

INDIANS: Long shot players can grab Cleveland at 300-1 at the Hard Rock and the Mirage. No value at Casino MonteLago (50-1) or Harrah's (50-1).

ATHLETICS: Oakland, tied with the Rangers atop the AL West standings, is 20-1 at the Golden Nugget. Avoid Circus Circus (4-1).

RANGERS: Texas is 40-1 at Casino MonteLago, the Palms and the Mirage; and 30-1 at the Golden Nugget.

ANGELS: The best price on Anaheim is 25-1 at the Imperial Palace.

PHILLIES: Philadelphia can be had at 15-1 at the Imperial Palace, and 12-1 at the Golden Nugget and the Mirage. No value at Arizona Charlie's or Leroy's (5-1).

MARLINS: The best bet on the defending champs is 25-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton.

METS: Although their odds have been dropping of late at some establishments, the Amazin's are still 75-1 at the Mirage.

BRAVES: Atlanta is 90-1 at the Hard Rock, 80-1 at the Mirage. Avoid Arizona Charlie's (8-1).

CARDINALS: St. Louis is 20-1 at Poker Palace, a small joint that caters to low-rollers. For bigger bettors, the Cards -- who own the best record in the National League -- are 15-1 at the Golden Nugget and the Venetian. Avoid Leroy's (7-2).

CUBS: A perennial favorite among Las Vegas sports bettors, the Cubs are as high as 8-1 at the Hard Rock, and as low as 8-5 at Terrible's.

REDS: Cincinnati can be found at 50-1 at the Las Vegas Club and the Palms. No value at Coast Casinos (6-1).

BREWERS: Milwaukee, which is ahead of the Astros in the standings though you wouldn't know it by the odds, is 300-1 at the Hard Rock, 250-1 at the Mirage and the Rampart.

ASTROS: Houston, which beefed up its roster by acquiring Beltran from the Kansas City Royals, is 15-1 at Caesars properties. Avoid Harrah's (3-1).

PADRES: San Diego is 25-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton, and 20-1 at the Imperial Palace, the Palms and the Venetian. No value at Leroy's (4-1).

GIANTS: San Francisco is 25-1 at the Las Vegas Club, and 22-1 at the Golden Nugget. The worst bet is Leroy's (7-2).

DODGERS; The best bet for L.A. is 30-1 at the Imperial Palace.

(This report was compiled over the past couple of days. As always, betting odds can and do change by the minute, so double-check before wagering.)

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