Columnist Spencer Patterson: CDs unlikely to be pushed aside by downloads

Spencer Patterson

Friday, Jan. 30, 2004 | 8:29 a.m.

"By 2007 or 2008, CDs will be something only old people have."

Those outlandish words came from the mouth of a respected research analyst at a gathering of music industry executives in France, Reuters reported this week.

The man who said it, Josh Bernoff of consulting firm Forrester Research, wasn't predicting another format would replace the compact disc as the world's primary listening medium.

Bernoff instead spoke of massive growth for music downloads (the legitimate type), a trend he projected would relegate CDs to the trash bin in just three or four years.

Not likely.

Surely, as more music becomes available online and more Internet users become comfortable with the concept of paying to download music, CD sales will be impacted. Perhaps severely.

But don't plan a funeral for the compact disc anytime this decade, at least not entirely.

For one thing, much of the world -- and the U.S., for that matter -- simply won't be online, for one reason or another, any sooner than that.

Plenty of those who are will continue to buy their music on CD, the same way many prefer going to the mall to shopping online.

There will also be those who remain attached to the traditional idea of the album as more than a collection of individually-priced downloadable files, particularly those compressed as mp3s.

OutKast's latest album has sold nearly 3.5 million copies domestically in 18 weeks. It's hard to believe all, or even most, of those buyers will decide to download the next one and burn the tracks onto discs themselves.

Even if that happens with new material, the compact disc will continue to be useful as a format for catalog releases. Reissues, expanded editions and high-fidelity CD cousins DVD-Audio and SACD are flooding the market, so they must be selling fairly well despite the industry's recent commercial slump.

Downloadable music certainly has advantages, most notably portability and ease of purchase. But as long as most of us do most of our listening at home and in our cars, the CD's swan song will be far later than some would have us believe.

Music notes

Re-enter the Wu-Tang: Take heart, local hip-hop fans: Wu-Tang Clan member Method Man, who recently canceled his scheduled March 11 concert at the House of Blues at Mandalay Bay, is expected to perform at the venue sometime in April, according to an HOB spokesman.

Reportedly, the show -- along with others on Method Man's upcoming tour -- were postponed due to a further delay in the release of the rapper's long-anticipated third solo album, "Tical O: The Prequel." The Def Jam disc is now slated to hit stores March 25.

Mars attacks: Hard rockers The Mars Volta have been tapped as the opening act for A Perfect Circle's spring U.S. tour, which lands at The Joint on March 29.

The Mars Volta was created by ex-members of At the Drive-In when that popular Texas outfit folded in 2001. The first Mars Volta album, "De-Loused in the Comatorium," was released to mostly positive reviews last June.

Let down your hair: HAir Guitar, a 1980s hair metal tribute band, opens a five-night run at the Monte Carlo Brew Pub Sunday at 10 p.m. Admission is free to the 21-and-over performances.

The Los Angeles outfit plays the music of Def Leppard, Bon Jovi, Kiss and Poison, among other acts from the era.

Book 'em: Two headliners have announced Las Vegas dates for their upcoming tours: the Vines with Jet at The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel on April 4 and Sarah McLachlan at the MGM Grand Garden Arena on July 17. Tickets details have not been announced for either show.

On sale

Tickets for Melissa Etheridge's March 2 show at The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel go on sale Saturday at noon. Tickets are $78 and will be available at the Hard Rock box office, at TicketMaster outlets, by phone at 474-4000 and at www.ticketmaster.com.