Columnist Dean Juipe: Sports books refuse to be ‘middled’ again

Dean Juipe

Friday, Jan. 30, 2004 | 10:10 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

As a rule of thumb, the betting line for a given sporting event is set in such a manner that half of the people making a wager will take one side while the other half will take the other side.

On those occasions when the betting pool isn't split so evenly and an inordinate amount of money is coming in on one side of a wager, the books will adjust the number in an effort to entice wagers on the other side.

But Sunday's Super Bowl in Houston between New England and Carolina is a little different.

In fact, planes, trains, trucks and automobiles could be filled to capacity with money to be bet on the Patriots and bound for Las Vegas and it wouldn't affect the point spread (at any of the Station Casinos properties in particular).

It isn't stubbornness that's holding the number at New England minus 7, especially for those books that opened the game at New England minus 6 1/2. No, it's because of something that happened 25 years ago.

Super Bowl XIII, held Jan. 21, 1979 in Miami and featuring Pittsburgh and Dallas as the participants, to this day stands as the ultimate example of what can happen to the books when they get "middled." And the lesson they've learned is that they're not about to let it happen again.

This year's Super Bowl opened at New England minus 6 1/2 at all the Station properties and at New England minus 7 in the books at the Mirage and Stardust. Station may or may not have made a mistake in choosing its number, but at the very least it underestimated the support the Patriots would receive from the betting public and it quickly moved its line to New England minus 7.

A major offshore sports book, Pinnacle, also opened the game at 6 1/2 before moving it to 7 on Thursday.

But no matter how much more money is bet on New England between now and the kick off, neither Station nor Pinnacle will move the line to 7 1/2, simply out of the fear of being "middled."

As professional gambler Lem Banker says in his 1986 book Sports Betting, "a middle occurs when a bettor takes advantage of changes in a point spread -- or differences in the spreads of two bookmaking establishments -- to win both sides of a wager."

The classic middle was the Steelers' 35-31 victory against the Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII.

That game opened at Pittsburgh minus 3 1/2, before moving to minus 4 before moving again to minus 4 1/2. Those movements allowed bettors to get the Steelers at a minus 3 1/2 and, later, the Cowboys at a plus 4 1/2 and win both sides of their bets if the final score landed on 4.

Which it did.

"You could have heard the bookies howl as far away as Los Angeles," Banker recalled. "They compared that day to Pearl Harbor, the sinking of the Maine and the stock market crash of 1929 all rolled into one.

"It couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of guys."

However much the books lost that day -- and there was speculation at the time that it was well into the millions -- those same books have all but vowed to never let it happen again. As a result, they're holding steady at New England minus 7 while toying with variables such as the vig and the money price. All because Jackie Smith had a pass bounce off his chest in the end zone.

That was, perhaps, the most famous play in Super Bowl XIII, as Smith -- then a tight end for the Cowboys -- failed to catch an easy TD pass from Roger Staubach in the third quarter with the Steelers ahead 21-14. Dallas settled for something of a demoralizing field goal and Pittsburgh rode the four-touchdown, hot hand of Terry Bradshaw to victory.

When the game finished with the Steelers enjoying a 4-point margin, they gasped in Las Vegas. The outcome was a perfect "middle."

But history will not be repeated. The books are more savvy and less inclined to leave themselves open to the possibility of "middling," and all the money in the world could be bet at a Station book this weekend and it won't budge the line past 7.

Banker, incidentally, uses his own calculations to determine what he believes is the ``true'' number for a given game, and for Sunday's Super Bowl he likes the Panthers and the over. He figures New England minus 4.73 points is the precise number, so he's taking the 7 the books are giving to go with Carolina.

He hopes to win and he hopes to have fun watching the game, of course, but either way it won't be as exciting as 1979. Nothing tops a "middle," which is why we may never see another one in a game as big as a Super Bowl.