Prop bets offer wild, wacky fun

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2004 | 10:01 a.m.

It's nearly as thick as the Old Testament, and just as fraught with peril for the imprudent.

It's the booklet of wagering propositions -- "props" -- on the Super Bowl issued each year by Las Vegas casinos.

Casual gamblers love Super Bowl props because they tend toward the wacky and whimsical -- Vince Carter's points versus Tom Brady's completions. Other misguided souls dismiss all props as "sucker bets."

Professional sports bettors, however, see props as an opportunity to get the upper hand on oddsmakers and pocket some cash.

And this year, for the first time, two prominent Las Vegas sports bettors are offering separate seminars on Super Bowl props, giving the gaming public a chance to learn from the experts how to navigate that thick, sometimes imposing, booklet.

The first, an online seminar conducted by the professional bettor who goes by the nom de gambling of Fezzik, took place Sunday. The second, hosted by veteran gambling ace Stanford Wong, is scheduled for Saturday at a yet-to-be-disclosed location in Las Vegas.

When these guys study props, whimsy gets wrinkled up and thrown away like a losing three-team parlay ticket. And cold, hard analysis is a prohibitive favorite over wackiness.

"Remember the movie 'The Terminator?' " Fezzik said. "The Terminator couldn't be bargained with; he couldn't be pleaded with. He was programmed to do one thing, and he wasn't going to be stopped. That's how I am (as a gambler). I'm going to grab any edge I can."

For last year's Super Bowl, Fezzik and Wong teamed up to offer a single seminar. In that presentation, Fezzik isolated a prop he said had tremendous value: the number of punts by the Raiders, plus 2 1/2, versus the number of punts by the Buccaneers. (The plus 2 1/2 acts much like a point spread; in other words, you would add 2 1/2 to the number of Raiders' punts to determine the winner.)

After Fezzik gave it out as a best bet, gamblers swarmed sports books all over town, hammering the prop. It won handily.

This year, Fezzik found a prop that he said offered similar value, at least against the opening line: The Patriots not to have a fourth-down conversion Sunday. The odds on the "no conversion" opened at plus 140 at several Las Vegas casinos, including the Imperial Palace and Harrah's. (Plus 140 means a $100 bet would pay a total of $240 -- the original wager plus $140 in winnings.)

It had been bet down to even money -- Fezzik's recommendation surely played a role -- by early in the week.

At even money, the play was still one of Fezzik's best prop bets for this year's Super Bowl.

The line on the prop was skewed, Fezzik said, most likely because New England has converted four fourth downs in its last two games.

"But so what?" Fezzik said Sunday at Mr. Lucky's in the Hard Rock Hotel, after conducting his online seminar. "That was because they were playing in really lousy weather, so long field goals were impossible. And against the Colts, you know their defense can't stop anybody, and you're going to call plays more aggressively because you want to keep (Colts quarterback Peyton) Manning off the field at all costs.

"The number on this prop should have been minus 150."

In all, Fezzik discussed about 15 Super Bowl props that he said offer good to exceptional value. Another one he likes is betting that Sunday's game will not go into overtime. The "no overtime" opened as low as minus 600 at the Mirage but has been bet up to minus 900 or 950 around town.

"There is well under a 10 percent chance that this game will go overtime," Fezzik said.

A couple of dozen people were online for Fezzik's seminar Sunday, with more expected to access it throughout the week at lvasports.com, website administrator David Matthews said. A $40 fee allows users to view the props discussion as well as archived posts from the football season.

At Saturday's seminar, which carries a $129 fee, attendees can expect a discussion of 10 to 12 key props along with a question-and-answer session, Wong said. At least 30 people are expected to attend.

"There are just so many props put up for the Super Bowl -- hundreds, even thousands -- that some are bound to have value for bettors," Wong said in a telephone interview this week after returning from the World Series of Blackjack at the Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut.

Best known as a longtime professional blackjack player, Wong, 60, parlayed his winnings into a Las Vegas-based publishing business, Pi Yee Press, and a comfortable lifestyle centered around a seaside home in La Jolla, Calif.

Wong, who has a doctorate in finance from Stanford University, entered the sports betting arena in 2001 with the publication of his book "Sharp Sports Betting."

Fezzik, meanwhile, was making a good living in the corporate world before he took up gambling full time. After graduating from Northwestern University, he worked as an actuary and as a vice president for a big insurance company in California.

A couple of years ago, he gave up the insurance game for sports betting -- where total liability means a losing bet on the over/under, and a rider is a basketball team favored against Siena.

"I had been flying into Nevada for every football weekend, and I was making the same amount of money gambling as I was in corporate America -- although with violent fluctuations in my bankroll," said Fezzik, 40.

Like many high-level gamblers, Fezzik -- a one-word name, like Nico -- treasures anonymity. Hence the pseudonym and his use of disguises during public appearances. (At last year's seminar, he sported sunglasses and a frizzy Afro wig.)

The low profile allows him to make large wagers without drawing unwanted scrutiny, Fezzik said. And his scheme works -- usually. Fezzik said one Las Vegas sports book manager once barred him from the book for a year, telling him, "It's not my job to buy you a new car every year."

But Bob Scucci, sports book director at the Stardust, said he values the opinion of Fezzik and other savvy bettors.

"Both (Fezzik and Wong) are very knowledgeable," Scucci said this week. "We do pay attention to what they're doing, because they might come up with something that we can learn from. Their opinions may influence the way we make or adjust our lines.

"And anything they do to stimulate interest in betting should be considered a positive for the sports books, whether they beat the sports books or not."