Columnist Dean Juipe: Consider giving the ‘dogs their due

Dean Juipe

Friday, Jan. 9, 2004 | 10:19 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

History may not foretell the future, yet it cannot be ignored. What happened in the past deserves to be considered when evaluating the present or what may yet come.

Such musings have a relevance this week, believe it or not, when discussing the National Football League playoff games that are scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.

Four games will be played and in each case the home team, coming off a bye week and facing an opponent coming out of a tough wild-card game, is favored.

Yet a good case can be made for each of the four underdogs, in spite of the undeniable evidence that those teams are underdogs for a reason.

Since 1998, home teams in the second round of the playoffs are 13-6-1 against the point spread and only once since 1982 has a home team been an underdog. In addition, 42 of the past 50 Super Bowl participants enjoyed a bye week to open the playoffs, and 21 of the most recent 25 Super Bowl winners had a first-round bye.

So, based solely on what has happened in the past, bettors may as well put their money on St. Louis, New England, Kansas City and Philadelphia and figure at least three of those teams -- if not all four -- are going to cover.

But I wouldn't advise it. I think the underdogs this weekend are perfectly capable of springing anywhere from one to four outright upsets.

At the sports book at Mandalay Bay, the Rams are favored by 7 1/2 against Carolina; the Patriots are favored by 6 1/2 against Tennessee; the Chiefs are favored by 3 against Indianapolis; and the Eagles are favored by 5 against Green Bay. Three of the four home teams -- Philadelphia is the exception -- were undefeated at home during the regular season.

But there's something to be said for the Panthers, Titans, Colts and Packers.

Carolina, which covered the 3-point margin in last week's 29-10 wild-card win against Dallas, is 4-1 as an underdog this season and has a running back in Stephen Davis who is capable of determining the outcome of the game. The Rams are also coming off a regular-season-ending loss to Detroit, and laying 7 1/2 may be asking a lot.

The Rams may win, but can they cover?

The other Saturday game, Tennessee at New England, matches a banged-up team against a well-rested one on a roll, yet 6 1/2 points is considerable and at least one professional gambler I know is taking the Titans to win outright. They won a pick 'em game last week at Baltimore and battered or bruised they figure to give the Patriots a battle to the wire.

The Patriots won 38-30 at the same site Oct. 5, but to think they're going to do it again forces you to believe that Tennessee quarterback Steve McNair won't find a way to keep his team close. Use your "feel" on this one.

Sunday's early game could easily go either way, as Indianapolis comes into Kansas City off a great game against Denver and the Chiefs are ranked a lowly No. 29 in total defense. The Colts are also 7-1 on the road, 5-2-1 against the spread on the road and 3-0 as an underdog on the road.

There's good reason to believe Indianapolis can win this game against a Kansas City team that is 2-5 against the spread in its past seven games. If Peyton Manning is anywhere near as hot as he was last week, it will.

The weekend finale at Philadelphia is a tougher sell for those inclined to go with the 'dogs, as the Eagles beat the Packers in Green Bay, 17-14, two months ago and quarterback Donovan McNabb is healthier now than he was then. But the Eagles have been known to give up some yards on the ground, ranking only No. 13 in the NFC rushing defense stats, and the Packers have a fine back in Ahman Green.

The Packers failed to cover the 7-point spread in their 33-27 overtime win against Seattle last week, and they may very well be spent from the effort and exertion that game required. This might also be one of those second-round playoff games that is decided by 14 points or more, as six of the past eight have been.

But the Packers also have Brett Favre playing and the Eagles' Brian Westbrook is not, and those factors may come into play.

History indicates each of these games might look competitive on paper, but that the majority of them will be won by the rested, home team.

With a nod to the past, let's just point out that sometimes history needs to be revised.

Might this be one of those occasions?