Thursday, Dec. 30, 2004 | 9:13 a.m.
Sal DeFilippo's pro football picks column appears Friday. Reach him at [email protected] or (702) 259-4076.
For the casual observer, it must appear as if Las Vegas oddsmakers have been sipping a little too much egg nog this week.
How else could you explain making a 14-1 team an 8-point underdog? Or listing a 13-2 team as a home underdog to a team that won't make the playoffs? Or making a 12-3 team whose quarterback just broke the single-season touchdown passing record an 8-point underdog to a playoff wannabe? Or posting an 11-4 team as a home underdog to a team with a sub-.500 record? Or installing another 11-4 team as a 5-point underdog to a playoff hopeful? Or saying a division champion is a 3-point underdog to a 5-10 team?
But it's all true, as those who set the lines have scrambled to determine which teams will treat their regular-season finale as a postseason game, and which teams that have secured playoff berths will treat this weekend as a preseason game by resting their star players.
With seven of the eight division winners decided as well as the top two seeds in each conference locked in, it's a rare situation where few teams have any reason to bring their "A" game. And since the teams out of the running don't have much of an "A" game anyway, it makes this a very difficult week to handicap games, or manage your fantasy football roster.
In the AFC, Pittsburgh has clinched home field throughout the playoffs. A rib injury suffered last week by rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and an ankle injury that will likely keep Jerome Bettis out of the lineup, combined with the fact that Buffalo is riding a six-game winning streak and is bucking for a playoff spot, has the Bills as more than a touchdown favorite.
The Colts and record-setter Peyton Manning have clinched the No. 3 seed in the conference, and cannot improve that position regardless of the outcome of this weekend's game at Denver. The Broncos, however, need a win to make the postseason, and as a result are also favored by 8 points.
San Diego is locked into the No. 4 seed whether it wins or loses against Kansas City, so rather than risk injuries, the bookmakers expect the Chargers to play safe and have installed the Chiefs as a 3-point road favorite. In the NFC, Philadelphia has clinched homefield, so aside from a few cameo appearances, don't expect to see many recognizable figures on the field this weekend against Cincinnati. So even though it generally takes a greal deal of imagination to use the words "Bengals" and "playoffs" in the same sentence -- and this year is no exception -- they are 3-point favorites against the NFC's top seed. Atlanta has not only clinched the No. 2 seed in the conference, but it recently gave quarterback Michael Vick a contract extension that forced Congress to refigure the national budget. The Falcons have nothing to gain this weekend and therefore are n early a touchdown underdog at Seattle.
The Packers are also locked into a first-round home game, and should use this weekend's game at Chicago as a playoff tuneup. Even though the Bears are 5-10 and have lost three in a row, they are a 3-point favorite.
Perhaps the most telling point spread of the weekend, though, is the Patriots-49ers game. New England also has nothing to gain this weekend, and should rest many of its starters. Still, the Patriots are 14-point favorites against San Francisco, which has not led a game at the end of regulation this season. Both of San Francisco's wins came in overtime against Arizona, which is like using the free space on your bingo card to say you weren't shut out. It counts, but it shouldn't.
This week's picks: After a 2-1 week to put the season mark at 24-23-1, I'll close out the season with the Panthers minus-7 1/2 against the Saints, the Vikings minus-4 1/2 against the Redskins and the Giants minus-2 1/2 against the Cowboys.
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