Columnist Jeff Haney: Right angle?

Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2004 | 9:15 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Top-ranked Southern Cal is still favored to win the Orange Bowl on Tuesday, but the point spread has been falling steadily since it was posted early this month.

USC is a 2 1/2-point favorite against Oklahoma in most local sports books after opening at 3 1/2, and even a bit higher on the early line.

College football's national title is at stake.

One reason behind the money coming in on the second-ranked Sooners could be a betting angle unearthed 14 years ago by Las Vegas sports handicapper Arne Lang that remains fresh today.

It's a simple premise: Look to bet against the Heisman Trophy winner's team in its bowl game.

The reasoning appears logical. The Heisman winner might see the bowl game as an anticlimax to a successful season, a time to relax and savor the fruits of his labor. The opposing team comes in hungrier, fired up, eager to knock Mr. Heisman off his perch.

As a bonus, recreational gamblers -- known affectionately as "squares" in Las Vegas betting parlors -- tend to bet on the highly hyped Heisman winner's team, creating value for sharper gamblers on the other side.

"While there are some notable exceptions to the rule, the team with the Heisman Trophy winner fails to cover the point spread more often than not," Lang said this week.

Lang popularized the angle back when he was producing the "Stardust Sports Registry" tip sheet.

In an issue of that late, lamented publication dated Dec. 1-24, 1990, Lang recounted his research on how Heisman winners performed in their bowl game from 1938 through the 1988 season.

Much of that period predated the widespread availability of point spreads. (While there has always been gambling on football, in the early days it was predominantly based on the money line. Instead of a 14-point underdog, for instance, a team would be listed as a 7-1 underdog to win outright.)

But one nugget convinced Lang he was following the right track. In 11 New Year's Day bowl games with verifiable point spreads, Lang found, the team with the Heisman winner was 1-9-1 against the spread.

"Heisman winners tend to play poorly in their bowl game," Lang said. "The angle is really strong, even though the exceptions stand out."

Among the memorable showings by Heisman winners in big bowl games, Lang pointed out Charles White's 247-yard performance for USC in the Rose Bowl following the 1979 season and Tony Dorsett's 202 yards for Pitt in the Sugar Bowl following the 1976 season.

Since Lang published his findings, the angle has more than held its own.

In 14 bowl games since 1990, the team with the Heisman Trophy winner has a record of 4-10 against the point spread.

And in the past five seasons, the team with the Heisman winner is 1-4 against the spread in its bowl game.

The exception came in the Orange Bowl that followed the 2002 season. USC quarterback and Heisman winner Carson Palmer was named the game's Most Valuable Player after leading the Trojans, who were favored by 4 1/2 points, to a 38-17 victory against Iowa and Heisman runner-up Brad Banks.

That was one of four bowl games since 1990 in which the Heisman winner squared off against either the runner-up or the third-place finisher in the voting for the award.

In those four games, the team with the Heisman "bridesmaid" is 3-1 against the spread, with Palmer again the lone exception. It's a small sample of games, but again, the reasoning makes sense -- the guy who didn't win has extra motivation.

Which brings us around to Tuesday's clash between USC and Oklahoma for the Bowl Championship Series title.

The Trojans are led by this year's Heisman winner, quarterback Matt Leinart.

The Sooners feature the Heisman runner-up in running back Adrian Peterson, as well as the third-place finisher, quarterback Jason White -- who won the 2003 Heisman.

Speaking with reporters this week, Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said he notices similarities between this year and the 2000 season, when Oklahoma's Josh Heupel finished second in the Heisman voting to Florida State's Chris Weinke. Oklahoma, a 10-point underdog, beat Weinke and Florida State outright in the Orange Bowl to claim the national title.

Sooners backers are hoping for a reprise next week.

Meyer update

Adam Meyer has failed in his bid to hit 60 percent against the point spread on Larry Grossman's radio show, "You Can Bet On It." (2-3 p.m. weekdays, 1460-AM.)

Meyer, a handicapper from Florida, put up $20,000 in cash, saying he would three pick football games a week and predict winners at a rate of at least 60 percent against the spread.

After going 2-1 last week, Meyer's record stands at 27-21 (56 percent). Even a 3-0 record in the final week would leave him short of the 60 percent mark. Grossman is donating the money to charity.

How the Heisman winners' teams fared against the spread (ATS) in their bowl games