Entertainment Weakly

Kirk Baird

Monday, Dec. 27, 2004 | 8:13 a.m.

Kirk Baird

It wasn't exactly a stellar year for me when it came to the annual predictions.

Some examples:

I predicted "Shrek 2" would not prove "nearly as popular as the first film." Not only did "Shrek 2" outgross its predecessor by nearly $175 million, the animated comedy sequel's total haul of more than $440 million made it the highest-grossing movie this year.

I also predicted that the sword-and-sandal epic "Troy," the Hollywood-ized version of Homer's classic "The Iliad," was my dark-horse pick for biggest film of the year. The film made $133 million in North American theaters, which places it as No. 10 on the top films of the year - so far.

I even thought "The Simple Life 2," the Paris Hilton-Nicole Richie reality TV series vehicle, would tank because of overexposure by the show's stars. "The Simple Life 2" actually performed as well in the ratings as the original series, and "The Simple Life 3" premieres Jan. 26 on Fox.

As I said, not a good year.

Still, I did predict Arnold Schwarzenegger would do well as the governor of California, which, by most accounts, he has, and that wildly popular "Survivor: Pearl Islands Panama" contestant Rupert Boneham would appear in "Survivor: All-Stars." He not only appeared on "All-Stars," but won a million-dollar prize as the most popular All-Star (as selected by fans).

For my predictions for 2005, I'm also including the skewed divinations of Fred Graver, executive producer of VH1's "Best Week Ever," which recently aired its year-end wrap-up, "Best Year Ever."

At least there's no "Shrek 3" to worry about - yet.

Janet Jackson

I'll give this to Ms. Jackson: Normally, the halftime Super Bowl show is memorable only for its lameness. "Up With People," anymore? This year, though, the infamous halftime appearance by one of Jackson's breasts become the hot topic for weeks, created a new catchphrase in "wardrobe malfunction" and spurred a renewed crack down by the Federal Communication Commission over indecency on the public airwaves.

Jackson and halftime show accomplice Justin Timberlake offered their public apologies. If the "malfunction" was to stir publicity for Jackson's latest album, "Damita Jo," it didn't work. The album was a commercial and critical disappointment.

Prediction: Between the Super Bowl brouhaha and a flop album, 2004 had to have been one of the toughest years yet for Jackson. Next year appears as if it will be even harder for her emotionally, with her brother Michael on trial for child molestation charges.

Graver: "Janet Jackson and Courtney Love will attempt to do their own Super Bowl pre-game show completely naked in the parking lot and nobody will care."

Michael Jackson

Between his sister Janet's scandal, financial woes and being accused of child molestation, the Gloved One had a rough year. Of course, if Jackson is found guilty of child molestation, 2005 is only going to get worse.

Prediction: Jackson is in for the fight of his life with the court case. If found guilty, his career is essentially over. But even if he's innocent of the charges, the damage to his reputation is done. Either way, it's a sad turn of events for the once King of Pop.

Graver: "He's got a big trial coming up. And I think ... he'll be arrested for trying to take the Oscar for 'Finding Neverland.' "

Howard Stern

Stern's normally juvenile locker-room humor became the focal point of what the shock jock considers a battle of free speech with the FCC. Earlier in the year Stern was dumped from six radio stations by Clear Channel Communications after the media conglomerate paid a nearly $500,000 fine for a Stern broadcast.

Stern recently told USA Today the FCC battles prompted him to consider leaving radio altogether. "I'm telling you: I thought I was getting out. I thought I was done." Instead, he recently announced his move to Sirius Satellite Radio beginning in January 2006. The switch will allow him more creative freedom than he has ever had.

"I guarantee I will reinvent myself, because I can go further than I have ever gone," Stern told USA Today. "I can explore anything I want to. You can't reinvent yourself if you've got the government breathing down your neck."

Prediction: Credit Stern for making the bold move to satellite radio, leaving the sure thing of radio behind. Still, his fans are very loyal and many are likely to give Sirius a try. While Stern's move may appear to be a victory for the FCC, the soon-to-be-unfettered shock jock may have the last laugh yet.

Graver: "Howard's going to satellite (radio) next year. But I think his face or butt will appear on the moon through laser projection technology that will even outdo the Sirius Satellite."

Mel Gibson

The actor-turned-director got personal with a film reflecting his religious beliefs, "The Passion of the Christ." The controversial and graphic take on the last hours of the life of Jesus, in which Christ is beaten bloody and crucified, polarized religious groups.

Despite wildly mixed reviews, "The Passion of the Christ" made nearly $610 million worldwide. Gibson is also enjoying success on the small screen, via his Icon Productions, with the TV series "Complete Savages" and "Kevin Hill." Proving Gibson is not always divinely inspired, though, his freshman baseball drama "Clubhouse" was quickly benched by CBS, despite critical praise.

Prediction: Gibson's investment in "Passion" made the actor-director much wealthier. Look for Gibson, though, to take a more low-key approach this year when it comes to movie-making. Of course, we're still waiting for the long-rumored "Road Warrior 4" film.

Graver: "He will do a follow-up, 'Passion of the Christ 2.' In this one, a cop buddy movie, Jesus is back from the dead and he's buddied up with John the Baptist as the crazy rogue cop. The tag line: 'The Passion 2: This time it's personal.' "

Britney Spears

The Divine Ms. Spears walked down the aisle not once, but twice in the same year. First Spears married longtime childhood friend Jason Alexander in a quickie Las Vegas wedding she insisted was a joke that was carried too far.

"I do believe in the sanctity of marriage, I totally do. (But) I was in Vegas, and it took over me," the singer said later. After a quick annulment, the Louisiana pop star said she found true love with backup dancer Kevin Federline. Spears was so excited about the marriage she even bought her own engagement ring.

Prediction: As Tammy Wynette sang: "D-I-V-O-R-C-E." Still, it will be interesting to see if Spears can get this marriage annulled as well.

Graver: "Britney is going to buy Graceland and move in (with) her dog and her family ... thereby sealing the deal that she is this generation's Elvis."

Martha Stewart

The domestic diva ran afoul of the federal government in 2001 when she was accused of lying to investigators about a personal stock sale. In a made-for-media trial spectacle, Stewart was found guilty in March and is serving a five-month prison sentence. Still, the humbled homemaking entrepreneur seemed to enjoy a renewed public favor and will return to TV in September with a one-hour syndicated show.

Prediction: Riding a wave of public sympathy and curiosity, Stewart's show will prove to be a success. By December of next year she'll even have a prime-time holiday special in which she will be reunited with her prison mates.

Graver: "The big moment for Martha next year is when she introduces her prison bride and it's a good thing."

Robert Blake

The 71-year-old actor is on trial for the 2001 murder of his wife, Bonny Lee Bakley, who was shot in the actor's car while waiting outside of a restaurant. While the "Baretta" star has maintained his innocence, the mercurial Blake has gone through several trial lawyers and has baffled reporters by playing guitar and singing during a press conference.

Prediction: In a compounding tragedy, Blake will be found guilty and will spend the remainder of his life in prison.

Graver: "In the middle of the trial, Robert Blake is going to be testifying and, in a complete surprise, he's going to say, 'You know what? I killed her. To hell with this. I'm tired.' "

Spongmonkeys

The bizarre creations from the Quiznos Subs ad campaign -- part hamster, part monkey with human lips -- first appeared on the Internet last year, before making their U.S. debut in a Super Bowl ad singing the praises of Quiznos Subs. While the spot certainly drew attention from understandably perplexed viewers, the Spongmonkeys only appeared in one other commercial before disappearing faster than you can say, "Where's the Beef?"

Prediction: It was a meteoric rise and subsequent fall for the Spongmonkeys. Why do I know they'll end up in a commercial with the sock puppet dog from the Pets.com ads?

Graver: "They've been fired. Quiznos actually fired the Spongmonkeys, which means they're free agents right now. I'm guessing they'll become the spokespeople for Celebrex, Vioxx and Aleve. Once you see them with those drugs, there's no question these drugs could go bad for you."

Ashlee Simpson

The little sister of Jessica Simpson enjoyed a breakout year in which her first album, "Autobiography," debuted at No. 1 on Billboard. All was going well for the younger Simpson until she appeared on "Saturday Night Live" in October.

Simpson's drummer cued up the CD of "Pieces of Me," a song she had previously performed that night. With no way to shut off the pre-recorded music, the bewildered pop star, who had been lip-synching, danced an impromptu jig and shuffled off the stage as her band played on.

Meanwhile, Simpson recently announced she's hitting the road in a 35-city headlining tour.

Prediction: The younger Simpson's tour will be initially scrutinized, but the young pop star will weather the negative publicity. And really, do teenage girls care if their pop idol is singing live or not?

Graver: "Ashlee Simpson will go out on tour and the whole idea of the tour will be no lip-synching but actually singing, which will give rise to legislation insisting that, from now on, she go back to lip-synching. And in a unique moment of bipartisanship, every member of Congress will vote for 'Yes, please keep lip-synching.' "

William Hung

Before 2004, sonically impaired William Hung was scarcely a household name. But that was before an "American Idol" audition endeared Hung to millions of viewers. While Hung wasn't good enough to make it past the tryout stage of "Idol," he was signed to a recording contract with the small label Koch.

The record company quickly capitalized on Hung mania with "William Hung: Inspiration," a collection of covers -- including Hung's take on "She Bangs," which he performed during the "Idol" audition; and the holiday-themed "William Hung: Hung for the Holidays."

Prediction: The Tiny Tim of the '00s managed to stretch his 15 minutes into nearly 365 days. Quite an accomplishment. Now, the Hung is done.

Graver: "William Hung will be the first successful cloned human. They're going to clone him and there will be thousands of him."

Ken Jennings

The mild-mannered software engineer from Salt Lake City became a national celebrity for his record run on "Jeopardy!" Before losing to a real estate agent from California, Nancy Zerg (who promptly lost on the next show, thereby sealing her fate as a future Trivial Pursuit question), Jennings won 74 straight games and took a record $2,520,700 cash prize. Next up: Jennings has a book deal with Random House.

Prediction: Jennings' book will sell enough, but he will quickly fade from public consciousness. Still, can't wait to see him on the "Jeopardy!" Tournament of Champions.

Graver: "He is getting a Cabinet position in the Administration as Secretary of Smartness. Bush is going to keep him around for amusement."

Bill O'Reilly

The controversial commentator and Fox News Network talk-show host found himself in a "no-spin zone" of his own after a former producer on the show claimed O'Reilly hounded her for phone sex. She sued her ex-boss for sexual harassment. While O'Reilly denounced the accusations, he eventually reached an out-of-court settlement with the accuser.

Prediction: With his legion of fans, the conservative talk show host hasn't suffered much fallout from the scandal, other than fodder for late-night talk show comedians. Barring more accusations, though, O'Reilly will be fine. Still, you have to wonder if his days as a children's book author are over.

Graver: "He'll not only publish more books for children ... he'll issue a set of children's books, 'The O'Reilly Factor Children's Coloring Book' ... which will actually be more intelligent than anything else he's ever published."

Donald Trump

After disappearing for a bit from the national spotlight -- due in large part to financial troubles -- The Donald enjoyed a resurgence in popularity with his reality show, "The Apprentice."

Created by reality TV guru Mark Burnett, "The Apprentice" premiered in January to top-10 ratings. The second season of the show, while not nearly as popular as the first, still drew 17 million viewers to its finale two weeks ago, good enough for a top-10 finish for the week. Up next for Trump is season three of "The Apprentice" -- which pits college graduates against high school graduates -- as well as more books and board games.

Prediction: With a interesting premise, look for season 3 of "The Apprentice" to perform better in the ratings than season 2. Still, The Donald's catchphrase, "You're Fired!" has grown as grating as his comb-over.

Graver: "Donald Trump will have the most brilliant, amazing, incredible, never-before-seen, never-duplicated, astounding year anyone in the history of humanity ever has."

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