Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2004 | 10:52 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
A sprained right ankle could keep star Philadelphia Eagles receiver Terrell Owens out of action through the playoffs, and the injury has already sent a ripple through the most visible point spread of the year: the betting line on the Super Bowl.
As Eagles fans were drowning their sorrows in their Tastykakes this week, Las Vegas oddsmakers were busy resetting the early line on the Super Bowl, scheduled for Feb. 6 in Jacksonville, Fla.
Before Sunday's games, the AFC was listed as a favorite of 3 or 3 1/2 points against the NFC in Las Vegas sports books, having been bet up from an opening line of 1 point at the beginning of the season.
Then Owens was hurt during the third quarter of the Eagles' 12-7 victory against the Dallas Cowboys when he was tackled from behind by Roy Williams.
Not all Las Vegas sports books offer the early Super Bowl line, but those that do took it off the board once it looked as if the injury could be serious.
When the new line hit betting boards Monday afternoon, it had been adjusted by 2 to 3 points in the AFC's favor.
That's a hefty amount considering Owens is just one player, and that his team might or might not make the Super Bowl, and that the game is six weeks away. Owens' status for the Super Bowl, if the Eagles advance that far, is uncertain.
Of course, Owens (77 receptions, 14 touchdowns) is not just any player -- and the Eagles (13-1 straight up, 9-5 against the spread) are clearly the class of the NFC.
"I think they're in serious trouble," said Las Vegas handicapper Patrick Bartucci, who is recommending a play on the AFC minus the points in the Super Bowl.
Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, said the Eagles' status as a heavy favorite to win the NFC played a crucial role in the construction of the Super Bowl line.
The Hilton had the AFC favored by 3 points before Sunday's action. Hilton oddsmakers adjusted it to 4 points at first, then raised it to 5. The Hilton now lists the AFC minus-5 with an over/under of 48 1/2 in the big game.
Kornegay said the line move was based solely on his staff's opinions and that he was not slammed with any big bets on the AFC immediately after Owens sustained his injury.
"We felt 5 was the right number," Kornegay said, "although there is a good chance it could end up being a lot higher than 5, because the line is based on Philly getting there.
"If somebody like the Falcons, or the Vikings, or the Packers gets in there against the Patriots or the Colts, you could be looking at a much larger number -- maybe something just under 10."
Other sports books reacted in a similar manner, but shaded the line slightly more toward the AFC -- for example, Station Casinos has the AFC favored by 6 points, and the Golden Nugget also has the AFC minus-6, with a total of 47 1/2.
Odds on the Eagles to win the NFC title and to win the Super Bowl were also bumped up when T.O. went down.
At the Hilton, for instance, the odds on Philadelphia to win the NFC were raised from 1-4 to 1-2. (A $100 wager at 1-4 would return $25 plus your original stake; at 1-2 it would return $50 plus your original stake.) The Eagles are a consensus 2-1 shot to win the Super Bowl at local books.
"We still think they're the best team (in the conference), just not by as wide a margin," Kornegay said.
Although he's a longtime Eagles fan -- "fortunately for us all, it's more head than heart these days," he tells his clients -- Bartucci sees the Super Bowl line going nowhere but up, and sees value in any number below 7 points.
Like Kornegay, he thinks if the Eagles get knocked out of the playoffs, the Super Bowl line could escalate dramatically.
Here are some of Bartucci's projected Super Bowl lines if the Eagles do not make it:
"If it's anybody other than Philly, owners of AFC tickets would be in an enviable position," Bartucci said.
Stardust contest
Big Al McMordie won the 10th annual Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament, defeating Brent Carter in the championship round this past weekend to claim the $10,000 winner-take-all prize.
"If you're a handicapper, this is one of those things you want to do before you die," said McMordie, a former corporate attorney who has been in the sports advisory business for the past 13 years.
McMordie, online at bigal.com, beat Ted Sevransky, Fezzik and Mike Orkin in the earlier rounds.
The tournament's 16 contestants collectively hit just under 56 percent against the spread in this year's event, according to Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci.
Bowl notes
The line on Thursday's Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium had UCLA favored against Wyoming by anywhere from 11 to 13 points in recent days. Not so mysteriously, the 11 was available (albeit briefly) at the Golden Nugget, the temporary home base of Wyoming fans. ...
The Gold Sheet points out that the underdog in the Sun Bowl is 9-0 against the spread in the past nine years and 12-1-2 in the past 15. This year's game pits Arizona State, an 8-point underdog, against Purdue on New Year's Eve. ...
Gamblers who bet Louisville up from a 9 1/2-point favorite on the opening line to a 13 1/2-point favorite against Boise State in the Liberty Bowl were obviously less than enamored with several close calls Boise encountered on the way to an 11-0 straight-up record. The Broncos beat San Jose State by 7 points as a 33-point favorite in the regular season; they beat Tulsa by 3 points as a 20-point favorite; and they beat BYU by 1 point when they were favored by 22.
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