Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Columnist Jeff Haney: Bettors get in on the action as Manning nears record

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].

Who will catch Peyton Manning's 49th touchdown pass of this season -- assuming, of course, there is a 49th touchdown pass this season? Below are the odds listed for various players on the Indianapolis Colts roster:

Odds are from the Plaza sports book. If Manning does not throw a 49th TD pass, all bets will be refunded.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning could make history Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

If Manning does break Dan Marino's 20-year-old record for touchdown passes in a season, though, the cheering that erupts in Las Vegas sports books probably won't be coming from football historians.

It's more likely to come from bettors who have money riding on a variety of propositions linked to Manning's pursuit of the record.

The most creative prop asks bettors to determine which Colts player will catch the record-breaking pass.

"We made Marvin Harrison a 2-1 favorite, and he's been getting most of the attention," said Lou D'Amico, sports book director at the Plaza and Las Vegas Club.

Manning has thrown 46 touchdown passes, an average of about 3.5 a game, and is two away from tying Marino's record of 48 set in 1984.

Mandalay Bay on the Strip and the Plaza downtown were among the sports books that offered over/under wagering on the total number of touchdown passes Manning will throw this season.

The Plaza set the number at 55 touchdown passes, and bettors put more money on the under than the over. The price opened at 55, minus 120 (meaning bettors wager $1.20 for each $1 they're trying to win) and recently closed at 55, minus 150.

"Before we took that one down, people were betting it under," D'Amico said.

If Manning were to continue at his current pace, he would finish with 56 or 57 touchdown passes.

Station Casinos sports books have been offering a weekly over/under prop on the number of touchdown passes thrown by Manning. It has been set at 3 or 3 1/2 TD passes each week. For Sunday's game against the Ravens, Palace Station oddsmaker Micah Roberts was expected to set the number at 3 touchdowns, with a premium on the under.

Here's one way to analyze that proposition: The Colts are a solid 8-point favorite against the Ravens, and the total is a solid 49 points in Las Vegas. So oddsmakers are predicting the Colts will score approximately 28 to 30 points Sunday. In the six games this season in which the Colts have scored 31 or fewer, Manning threw 2, 4, 3, 2, 2 and 2 touchdowns, an average of 2.5 -- meaning a play on the under 3 could be worth a look.

Reggie Wayne, at odds of 5-2, is the second choice at the Plaza, behind Harrison, to catch Manning's 49th touchdown pass. Also on the board are Edgerrin James (6-1), Brandon Stokley (3-1), Dallas Clark (5-1), Marcus Pollard (5-1) and Dominic Rhodes (10-1).

The "field," or all other players, is listed at 5-1.

"James is a sleeper at 6-1, but he's been getting a lot of attention, too," D'Amico said.

Teaser trouble

That seemingly meaningless Kansas City Chiefs touchdown off a fumble recovery with eight seconds left Monday night crushed the spirit of a lot of teaser players in Las Vegas. (Hey, only a heartless cynic would suggest teaser players get what they deserve.)

A favorite strategy among some bettors is to tease underdogs of 1 to 2 1/2 points up 6 points (to 7 to 8 1/2), especially if the underdog is at home.

These bettors also like to tease favorites of 7 to 8 1/2 points down 6 points (to 1 to 2 1/2). The idea is to "capture" the key numbers of 3 and 7 (and to a lesser extent, 4 and 6) -- which in the NFL is where the final score is most likely to land.

In a two-team, 6-point teaser the bettor is required to lay 110 to win 100, and both teams must cover for the bet to win.

These teaser players like to point out that this betting option is disappearing from the sports betting scene --an indication it provides bettors with an advantage: Most sports books charge more than minus 110 these days, and some don't allow two-team, 6-point teasers at all.

The strategy failed Monday night, though, via a bad beat for anyone who teased the Tennessee Titans up from a 2-point underdog to an 8-point 'dog.

The Titans were trailing 42-38 (a comfortable 4-point margin for teaser players) when the Chiefs' Kawika Mitchell picked up the football and ran it in for a touchdown with eight seconds left after the Titans blew a lateral play.

The late score gave the Chiefs a 49-38 victory, obliterating Titans teaser plays.

Stardust update

Big Al McMordie and Brent Carter will clash in the final matchup of the Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament. McMordie went 6-1 against the spread in his seven selections this past week to defeat Mike Orkin.

The season-long tournament features 16 handicappers competing in a single-elimination format for a $10,000 prize.

Collectively, the contestants have picked winners at a rate of 56 percent heading into the final week, according to Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci.

The final is scheduled for 9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust.

Bonds prop

The Plaza has posted an early baseball proposition on the number of home runs Barry Bonds will hit in the 2005 regular season. The over/under has been set at 40 1/2 home runs, and Bonds must play at least 120 games for action.

Bonds hit 45 home runs in 2004, 45 in 2003 and 46 in 2002 after belting a record 73 in 2001.

There has been speculation Bonds, who is closing in on Hank Aaron's career home run mark, might retire rather than chase the record after his name was linked to baseball's steroids scandal.

Bonds has 703 home runs; Aaron finished with 755.

"With all the steroid-related attention he has drawn, I thought it was a good time to start getting some baseball props up," the Plaza's D'Amico said.

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