Columnist Jon Ralston: ‘06 governor’s race predictable

Friday, Dec. 10, 2004 | 4:54 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

WEEKEND EDITION

December 11 - 12, 2004

"I can be more enthusiastic about Kenny Guinn's candidacy for governor than my own. Frankly, he'll be a great governor. There's just no doubt in my mind."

-- Republican spinmeister Sig Rogich, Las Vegas, Sun, Feb. 29, 1996

"I'm just of the opinion that (Jim Gibbons') strength in Northern Nevada and the rural communities, coupled with the fact that he is building momentum in Southern Nevada, will make him very difficult to beat if he chooses to run (for governor)."

-- Rogich, Sun, Nov. 22, 2004

It is a consecration devoutly to be wished, the closest approximation of a Nevada political sacrament. When the high priest of anointments speaks, the rest is history. So shall it be written, so shall it be done.

With Campaign '04 receding into history, the race for governor has commenced, a post-election rite that was as predictable as Guinn's ascent was eight years ago. And the public bickering between gubernatorial contenders Dina Titus and Richard Perkins last week shows that the Democrats may kill each other before Gibbons has a chance.

The congressman is the prohibitive favorite, even Democrats acknowledge. But Jim Gibbons is no Kenny Guinn. Gibbons is a staunch conservative while Guinn is a moderate. And while Guinn was known for being well liked, Gibbons is not -- especially among the elected GOP elite, who find him to be a mercurial maverick at best and a loose cannon at worst.

But, as one high-ranking Republican confided, even though Gibbons may be disdained by other elected officials, "He's going to win." That is, it's time to get on board the anointment.

Gibbons also has a well-stocked war chest -- about half a million dollars, similar to what Guinn had eight years ago. But the powers that anoint are not as united this time around and will never completely coalesce around Gibbons.

So what are the odds as the run-up to the most important contest of '06 begins? It may be blasphemous to set a line, especially this early, but in this church of latter-day governors, apostasy in the pursuit of anointment is no vice. Here are the thumbnails:

Almost eight years ago, Perkins, playing the good Democratic soldier, declared with faux outrage his disgust with the Guinn coronation.

"I don't like the anointing process," Perkins told reporters. "This is an election, not an appointment."

Titus also was in high dudgeon for the Fourth Estate in early 1997: "The Democratic Party shouldn't just roll over in the race for governor."

Perkins may be warming up to the anointing process as his campaign for Guinn's successor begins. And Titus doesn't appear to be rolling over. But the real story here is that with a couple of mayoral wild cards yet to be played, this is, as it was for Kenny Guinn eight years ago, Jim Gibbons' race to lose.