Columnist Jeff Haney: Juicy stake

Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2004 | 9:57 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Anyone who says it's easy to win 60 percent of your sports bets has never tried.

A sports handicapper from Plantation, Fla., named Adam Meyer said he could. And he wanted a chance to prove it before the toughest audience on earth: Las Vegas sports gamblers.

"The first thing I said was, 'yeah, so?' " said Larry Grossman, the longtime host of the radio program "You Can Bet On It."

"Do you know how many guys say they can do that?"

But in a refreshing turn, Meyer was willing to back up his claim -- with $20,000 in hard cash.

That got Grossman's attention.

So, just before the beginning of this year's football season, Meyer and Grossman hammered out some ground rules:

After putting up the 20 dimes, Meyer would appear on Grossman's show each Wednesday and make three football selections against the current point spread at the Hard Rock's sports book.

Over the course of 17 weeks, Meyer would have to go at least 31-20 against the spread (60.78 percent).

When, or if, he sustained his 21st loss, his run on the show would end immediately.

If Meyer succeeded in hitting 60 percent, he would get his $20,000 back.

If he failed, Grossman would donate the cash to charity.

"He put his money where his mouth is," Grossman said. "I hope he does it. But if he doesn't, $20,000 goes to charity and it just goes to show how tough it is to hit 60 percent."

Once they agreed on the terms of the proposition, Meyer flew to the desert and handed Grossman $20,000 in cash. (No word on whether it was stuffed into a bulging envelope or wrapped in a rubber band, like broccoli at the supermarket.)

Grossman promptly placed the money in a safe-deposit box, where it awaits its fate.

With five weeks remaining in the challenge, Meyer's record stands at 21-15 (58 percent). He has to go at least 10-5 in the next five weeks to win.

Grossman was skeptical in the beginning, although Meyer helped his cause by going 13-5 the first six weeks of the season.

"I think Larry was my strongest critic at first," Meyer said at the Hard Rock last week in his first visit of the football season to Las Vegas.

Meyer said Grossman's show (2-3 p.m. weekdays on 1460-AM, online at cardplayer.com), which has always featured reputable handicappers and doesn't allow hard-sells or 900 numbers, was a good fit.

"I felt this was the type of show I wanted to go on," Meyer said. "If it was one of those shows with all kinds of outrageous claims, I wouldn't have done it."

Although his appearances are generating publicity for his sports advisory service, Meyer said his primary motivation was the thrill of the chase.

"I don't need to make myself famous," Meyer said. "I already have a lot of clients. I've been doing this (handicapping) since I was a kid, and I work at it 90 hours a week, never taking a day off. ... When I lose a game, I lose sleep over it -- not because of the money, but because I know people are counting on me.

"I just wanted to show people that with all the outrageous claims, I'm the only guy out there who puts his money where his mouth is."

Meyer originally proposed a goal of 55 percent before agreeing to up the ante.

"A listener wrote in saying, 55 percent, big deal," Grossman said. "So I told him, let's make it 60."

Grossman was surprised when Meyer didn't make a counteroffer (such as 57 or 58 percent), because hitting 60 percent is no mean feat.

By most estimates, a winning rate of 55 or 56 percent on straight bets can provide a professional gambler with a comfortable lifestyle, assuming adequate volume.

The professional bettor Fezzik said while just about anything can happen in a short sample of 51 selections, it's an impossible dream to hit 60 percent over the long term (say, several hundred picks) in today's highly competitive sports betting environment. Oddsmakers are just too sophisticated.

Fezzik, a former actuary, said an average bettor, one who can be expected to hit 50 percent against the spread long-term, would be a 12-1 underdog to hit 60 percent in a sample of 51 picks over 17 weeks.

"I have been extremely impressed with Adam's handicapping skills, although I have questioned some of his money-management advice, such as increasing the size of your bet based upon how you did in your previous games," Fezzik said.

Meyer countered by saying his advice to bet a little more after a win is aimed at casual, recreational players rather than people who gamble for a living.

Meyer comes across as a throwback to old Vegas -- a gamblin' man with a touch of the theatrical who has an opinion and a bankroll to back it up.

Then again, the same could be said of Fezzik. Meyer and Fezzik met in person last week for the first time -- and within minutes they were negotiating details of new high-stakes betting propositions between the two of them, perhaps one involving picking basketball games against the spread.

Stay tuned.

Stardust update

In a week of poor showings by all of the contestants, Big Al McMordie advanced past Fezzik in the $10,000 Stardust Invitational football handicapping contest. Both men went 2-5 in their selections, with McMordie hitting the tiebreaker.

Also, in a match to break a tie from the previous week, Jimmy Vaccaro (3-4) eliminated Cesar Robaina (2-5).

At 9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust race and sports book, Vaccaro faces Brent Carter in the first semifinal round.