There’s an ‘over’ bias, so better to look ‘under’

Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2004 | 9:26 a.m.

Jeff Haney

Fezzik's recommendation of playing two "overs" in NFL season wins represents a departure from the usual strategy, as sharp bettors generally look toward the "under" in this form of football betting.

That's because there is a built-in bias toward the "over" in the list of betting lines that oddsmakers issue on season-win totals.

With 32 NFL teams each scheduled to play 16 regular-season games, the sum of all of the teams' projected season wins should be 256. (32 times 16, divided by 2.)

When you add up all of the season-win totals on the board at local sports books, however, you'll get about 262: The oddsmaker shades the lines toward the "over." While this bias certainly does not guarantee that any particular bet will win, it does make "unders" the more attractive play.

The traditional explanation for the bias is the betting public's propensity to bet heavily on the "overs" -- probably because it's more fun to root for your team to win rather than hoping it loses each week so you can cash your ticket.

Sharp bettors -- who don't care about fun but do care about money -- are therefore more likely to bet "unders."

"Although I'm bullish on the 'over' for these two plays (the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks), all of my other picks will be 'unders' " Fezzik said. "One reason I'm comfortable betting over 9 (wins) is that I believe both lines are likely to close at 9 1/2."