Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2004 | 9:25 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
CHALK: favorite, in sports betting or horse racing.
PLAY: To make a bet on. "I played the Seahawks over 9 wins."
July 7 -- Future books for the World Series.
July 14 -- Games of the year in football.
July 21 -- Over/unders on wins in NFL season.
July 28 -- Larry Grossman's gambling show returns.
Aug. 4 -- Handicappers convene at Mandalay Bay.
Aug. 11 -- Kenny White of LV Sports Consultants.
Today -- Pro sports bettor bullish on Denver, Seattle.
Next week -- Best things about Vegas sports betting.
With just a little more than three weeks remaining before the start of the National Football League's regular season, some familiar names are sitting atop the betting boards in Las Vegas sports books.
The New England Patriots, winners of two of the past three Super Bowls, are listed at odds as low as 4-1 to repeat as NFL champs.
The Philadelphia Eagles, who have advanced to the past three NFC title games, are also 4-1 to win the Super Bowl at some shops.
The over/under on the number of regular-season wins attached to each of those teams is 10 1/2 or 11, according to Las Vegas oddsmakers.
There are sharp bettors in this town, however, who would sooner be caught playing Caveman Keno than bet into that kind of chalk.
"When I'm looking for a team to go with, I don't want to take someone like Philly or New England, teams that the betting public loves to back," said the professional gambler known as Fezzik (just one name, please). "You're just not going to find any good odds on those teams."
Since arriving in Las Vegas several years ago, Fezzik has put together a string of successful "best bets" in season win over/unders, releasing his top play each summer either in print or on a gambling-oriented Web site. This year he has set up shop at fezziksplace.com, which is affiliated with Anthony Curtis' Las Vegas Advisor newsletter.
Though he has yet to decide upon his official best bet for the 2004 season, Fezzik did tell the Sun that he is "very bullish" on the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, and that he would not be surprised if those teams were to meet in the Super Bowl.
Fezzik recommends playing both teams to win over 9 games this year and to win their respective divisions, Denver the AFC West and Seattle the NFC West.
"If I'm going to pick a team to ride, I'm going to look for one that's not in a strong division," said Fezzik, who advanced to the final of the Stardust's $10,000 football handicapping invitational last season. "Both the Broncos and the Seahawks are in divisions that include teams I consider overrated."
In the AFC West, it's easy to scratch off the Oakland Raiders and the San Diego Chargers, Fezzik said. That leaves the Kansas City Chiefs, who are favored to win the division at minus 125. (As always, odds vary by sports book and by the day, so shop around for the best number.)
But Fezzik thinks the Broncos compare favorably -- last season Denver lost to KC by a point in Week 5 and beat the Chiefs 45-27 in December.
Perhaps more significantly, the odds on the Broncos are much more attractive. As recently as a couple of weeks ago, the Broncos were listed at plus 200 in Las Vegas to win the division. While the value has been bet out of that number, the Broncos can still be found at "plus money."
The Broncos' key team statistics from last season -- 334 first downs to their opponents' 241; 5.3 yards per play to their opponents' 4.9 -- are indicative of a "10-win team," Fezzik said.
"But even those stats were skewed because they include a meaningless 31-3 loss (at Green Bay) in Week 16, when they had (backup) Danny Kanell at quarterback and they were resting their starters," Fezzik said.
Regular starting quarterback Jake Plummer appears healthy and "ready to have a big year," according to Fezzik.
"I think Denver looks as solid as anybody," Fezzik said. "(Fellow Las Vegas handicapper) Andy Iskoe likes to say that if a team is projected to make the playoffs, they're most likely going to have at least 9 wins. And I certainly have the Broncos projected to make the playoffs."
Meanwhile, the Seahawks' primary competition in the NFC West is the St. Louis Rams, pegged at 9 1/2 season wins by Las Vegas oddsmakers.
Fezzik, however, said he expects bettors to drive that number down to 9 by the NFL's opening day -- and that the line on the Seahawks could be bet up to 9 1/2 wins.
"I consider to the Seahawks over 9 wins to be a strong bet, particularly at (odds of) minus 130 or less," Fezzik said.
Seattle is best known for its offense, led by quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (28 touchdowns last season) and running back Shaun Alexander (16 TDs), with defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes expected to tighten the "D" in his second year with the team.
The Seahawks have emerged as a popular pick among bettors in Super Bowl future books: Seattle opened in the area of 28-1 to win the NFL championship but has been bet down to as low as 10-1, a price that offers little apparent value. The Broncos are also in the 10-1 range around the city.
In division betting, the Seahawks are about minus 150 to win the NFC West; the Rams plus 125.
The over/under on the Seahawks' season wins was 9 1/2 this week at the Golden Nugget, with bettors required to lay 110 on either the over or the under (that is, wager $110 for each $100 they're trying to win). At Arizona Charlie's, the line was 9 wins, minus 115 each way.
The Broncos were listed at 9 wins (over, minus 130; under, plus 110) at the Golden Nugget. Many other local sports books offer betting on season wins as well.
Ups and downs
Here's an alternate way of looking at NFL season wins that could put money in gamblers' pockets.
Some bettors begin their analysis by acknowledging that the oddsmaker is usually correct in predicting whether a team's season-win total will go "up" or "down" -- that is, whether the team will win more games or fewer than in the previous season.
Sure, he might make the particular number too high or too low, but as far as the direction -- up or down -- the oddsmaker is usually on target.
According to information presented at the Web site sharpsportsbetting.com at the end of this past NFL season, for 2003 the oddsmaker said 17 teams would win more games than they did in 2002. The oddsmaker's "record" was 12-3-2 "in terms of the direction," according to the Web site.
A bettor who played each of those teams "over" against the actual number in sports books would have been 9-8.
For the same season, the oddsmaker said 13 teams would win fewer games than in 2002. His record in terms of the direction was 9-3-1, and a bettor playing each of those teams "under" would have been 8-5.
Combined, that's a 17-13 record playing "blindly" -- that is, with no other handicapping.
Intrigued by this imaginative approach, we took it a couple of steps further:
That's a 17-12-1 record against the number playing blindly.
That's a 17-8 record against the number playing blindly.
How does this method apply to the 2004 season?
A bettor might want to look at these 14 teams to go "over" their posted total: Buccaneers, Cardinals, Falcons, Bills, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Raiders, Chargers, Redskins, Giants, Jaguars and Lions.
And these 17 to go "under": Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, Broncos, Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Bears, Panthers, Saints, Rams, Seahawks and 49ers.
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