Columnist Jon Ralston: Big questions as filing opens

Friday, April 30, 2004 | 5:12 a.m.

AS FILING opens Monday and trial balloons are shown to have helium or hot air, many questions about Campaign '04 have yet to be answered.

A couple of major uncertainties have been resolved as the two-week period commences. We now know, as almost everyone foretold, that Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio will seek another term -- though it's still unclear whether he can hold onto all of his power in Session '05. And we are all but certain that the move to repeal The Great Tax Increase of 2003 will not happen as perennially inept gadfly George Harris, posing in the Review-Journal as the messiah, has acknowledged he is, once again, a false prophet.

But while we may be assured of another session with Raggio in the legislative upper house, and while we know the Democrats will ignore Rep. Jim Gibbons and the Republicans will leave Sen. Harry Reid and Rep. Shelley Berkley alone, little else is certain.

Like those nagging questions of whether Assemblyman Chad Christensen's campaign budget will be squandered at Taco Bell or whether incipient Chancellor Jim Rogers will reduce the need for regent elections by throttling a few by November or whether the valley can survive an unprecedented five county commissioners on the ballot, I expect few mysteries will be resolved by May 14.

Four seminal questions about Campaign '04 probably will remain:

Because we are about to start seeing reminders of what happened, many done by revisionist historians, on television and in our mailboxes. The Republicans are about to try to find out if the public really is as benighted as they hope. Some incumbents and GOP candidates are going to try to first persuade voters that the tax increase was outrageous and, most of all, Democrat-inspired, and then they are going to boast of having voted against it.

Will people buy it when Assembly folks crow about opposing "the largest tax increase in history" even though most of those running supported the "largest tax increase in history," just one that was slightly or significantly smaller? Or will the electorate actually question legislative contenders on what they would have done to keep up with increases in education needs, health care imperatives and social welfare programs?

The gamers also will lend a hand in various other races that look promising as they look to silence a few lambs from the Mean/Fearless Fifteen, the GOP assemblymen who wailed as the $833 million tax increase was passed. If the Strip denizens don't make good on their promises, though, you can be sure that these folks will pay no attention next session to the men behind the curtain.

The Democrats benefit because they drew the lines during the 2001 redistricting battle. But they got a little cocky and didn't make all their seats as safe as they should be.

I still think the Democrats can hold on, but it might be nip and tick. And if the Republicans can take the Assembly -- they are guaranteed to hold the Senate -- all the Democrats can hope is that Gov. Kenny "no new taxes" Guinn reverts to form.

If John Kerry can get traction here on Yucca Mountain and the Democratic grass roots machine revs up, the entire election dynamic could change from the top down. But if, as seems likely, the dump becomes a non-factor and the Republicans are galvanized by taxes, the Democrats might not need all the fingers on one hand to count the number of important offices they hold in this state.