An unsolved puzzle

Ralph Siraco

Friday, April 30, 2004 | 10:20 a.m.

Time has run out. All the prep races have been run. And won. For all of the more than 50 Kentucky Derby prep races that have been run from coast to coast since Jan. 1 through the Derby Trial last Saturday, the 130th edition of America's most famous horse race is still wide open.

As wide open as it was at the turn of the year. So much so, that this year Churchill Downs enforced its "20-horse" rule limiting those sophomores going for racing's fame and fortune to 20 precious positions in the Derby starting gate. And then this morning, Wimbledon and St Averil were scratched and the field was reduced to 18.

The usual Kentucky Derby attrition of 3-year-olds falling by the way side -- by either injury, sickness, interrupted training schedules or dull efforts that didn't justify a Derby start -- has been at a minimum. And time has run out for one to step up and take the title as the "horse to beat."

So this year's Run for the Roses will be remembered either as a class of mediocrity or a balanced group of talented runners who, for the most part, stayed sound through the rigors of the road to the Triple Crown.

Either way, this Kentucky Derby is a doozie. It is one of the most interesting equine Derby puzzles in decades, and, whether you think it is too hard to handicap or an opportunity to cash in big, this Derby is one that holds more than the average dose of drama.

The Derby stories are here.

There is an undefeated runner with an owner, trainer and jockey making their first Derby appearances. Three other riders will make their Derby debuts as well as five previous winners looking for another. Fifteen of the top 19 jockeys on the national earnings leader board are here, including last year's winner Jose Santos, 2002 winner Victor Espinoza and two-time winners Kent Desormeaux and Jerry Bailey.

There are two female trainers looking to be the first Derby damsel to win and if Kristin Mulhall wins it she will also be the youngest conditioner ever to train a Derby winner. The top six trainers on the national earnings list have horses in the Derby, including multiple winners Bob Baffert and Nick Zito along with Breeders' Cup champion conditioner Richard Mandella and Eclipse Award winner Bobby Frankel.

And, oh yeah, the horses. Nineteen major Kentucky Derby prep winners will enter the starting gate for the 1 1/4-mile classic. Three are multiple-stakes winners that include Smarty Jones, who boasts four prep victories. Horses representing every corner of the country, including a one-eyed horse named after the one-eyed legendary rider of Seabiscuit, a horse named after a legendary Kentucky chart-caller and and a tennis championship. Even the juvenile champion of 2003 has survived to make the field.

In light of the scratch of Wimbledon, who would have started from post No. 5, the four horses inside of that position will move out one spot. The horses in stalls 6-8 will be unaffected. St Averil's scratch opened up the 9 stall, so the horses from that spot out will move in one spot. As always, their saddlecloth numbers will remain the same.

So, here is the cast for this year's Grade I, $1 million Kentucky Derby, with saddlecloth number, odds and rider:

1. Limehouse

30-1, Jose Santos

Winner of the Hutcheson and Tampa Bay Derby, this guy is trained by Todd Pletcher who has two in the Derby this year. It is the third year that Pletcher has multiple entries looking for his first Derby trophy. Limehouse is 2-for-2 over the Churchill Downs track.

2. Song of the Sword

30-1, Norberto Arroyo Jr.

Won his first three races. Taking the New York route, his trainer Jennifer Pedersen will try to be the first female to trainer a Derby victor. His rider is also making the Derby debut. Moved in from 24th position on the qualifying list to make the field.

3. Lion Heart

10-1, Mike Smith

Expected to be one of the pacesetters in the bulky field. Won the Hollywood Futurity at 2, second in the San Rafael and Blue Grass Stakes at 3 while setting the pace. Trained by Patrick Biancone. A gate-to-wire task will be a large order here.

4. Action This Day

30-1, David Flores

Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award winner of 2003. Has been a disappointment at 3 with a trio of dull efforts. Was discovered to have back trouble, has been treated for it and trainer Dick Mandella feels he is ready to turn it around. Would be the first Juvenile-Derby double winner in history.

6. Friends Lake

15-1, Richard Migliore

Won the March 13 Florida Derby at 37-1 odds. Trainer John Kimmel decided to trainer him up to the Derby, sitting seven weeks on the bench. Son of 1992 Horse Of The Year A.P. Indy, he is 3-for-5 in his brief career. Will try to become the 15th Florida Derby winner to take the roses since 1958.

7. Minister Eric

30-1, Pat Day

His runner-up effort in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile ensured him enough graded earnings to make the top 20 for the Derby. Trained by Richard Mandella, he has come along slowly and has just an allowance win this year. Jockey Day, who is the all-time leader at Churchill Downs, has the most Derby experience with 22 previous rides and only one victory.

8. Master David

12-1, Alex Solis

Hall Of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel has won almost everything in racing except the Derby. This guy won the Sham Stakes then recently second in the Wood Memorial. Frankel has finished second twice in the Derby with Empire Maker last year and Aptitude in 2000. Likewise, Solis, making his 14th Derby attempt, has been runner-up three times. Is it time for these to click Derby toast here?

10. Imperialism

15-1, Kent Desormeaux

Reeled off consecutive victories in the San Vicente and San Rafael Stakes before a troubled trip that placed him second in the Santa Anita Derby. Jockey Espinoza vacates this guy to ride another. Kristin Mulhall is wise beyond her age and this 21-year-old trainer is as poised as her horse. He will need diamond-lane trip with his come-from-behind style.

11. The Cliff's Edge

4-1, Shane Sellers

Track linemaker Mike Battaglia installed this guy as favorite. Named after famous circuit chart-caller, he was workhorse of trainer Nick Zito's powerful Derby prospects. Third in the Florida Derby he finished up winning the Blue Grass Stakes in his final Derby prep. Won two juvenile stakes races at Churchill Downs, he is 2-for-2 over the track. Deserves favorite's role.

12. Borrego

20-1, Victor Espinoza

Has finished runner-up in the Sham Stakes, Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies prepping for this. First Derby for trainer C. Beau Greely and Espinoza looks for Derby No. 2, having won with War Emblem in 2002. Why the switch here for Espinoza? Hmmm....

13. Birdstone

50-1, Edgar Prado

After winning the Grade I Champagne at Belmont Park in October, this guy was one of the favorites for Derby -- now 50-1? The "other" Zito trainee flopped in the Lanes End Stakes and was scratched from the Blue Grass. Doubts abound for son of 1996 Derby winner Grindstone.

14. Read The Footnotes

12-1, Robby Albarado

Was the goods early in the year. Won his fourth consecutive race in Grade II Fountain Of Youth, then fourth in Florida Derby. Rested since then, trains into Derby off seven week layoff and jockey Jerry Bailey bails to another. Trainer Richard Violette's first Derby runner is said to have pedigree limitations for the distance.

15. Smarty Jones

9-2, Stewart Elliott

All this guy does is win. Obscure start in maiden-breaker at Philadelphia Park led to sweep of preps at Oaklawn Park this year. Won the Arkansas Derby to gain Graded earnings for a Derby berth. First Derby appearance for owner Someday Farm, trainer John Servis and rider. Maybe the Someday for Farm is Saturday in Louisville. Will try to be the first undefeated Derby winner since Seattle Slew in 1977.

16. Castledale

15-1, Jose Valdivia Jr.

Irish-bred upset the Santa Anita Derby at boxcar odds. Trained by Santa Anita title winner Jeff Mullins, this guy is co-owned by the horse racing network's TVG anchor Frank Lyons. Third Derby starter for trainer and first for jockey, he will try to become the ninth Santa Anita Derby winner since 1952 to take the Kentucky version.

17. Pollard's Vision

20-1, John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher's "other" Derby starter won the Illinois Derby after a third in the Louisiana Derby. Named for Seabiscuit's jockey Red Pollard, this horse is blind in one eye just like his namesake. He is another that may attend a crowded pace scenario.

18. Tapit

8-1, Ramon Dominguez

A Las Vegas angle in the Derby. Owned by Las Vegan Ron Winchell -- who owns the Winchell's Pub & Grill's and is a local shopping center developer -- this guy came from last-to-first in the Wood Memorial. Although this son of Pulpit has had setbacks in his preparation due to illness, he has come on strong and is a promising Derby prospect. Trainer Michael Dickinson, who is a genuine genius conditioner, and jockey make their first Derby appearances. They believe the best of Tapit comes Saturday. A Tapit victory means a hearty party at Winchell's Pub & Grill.

19. Pro Prado

30-1, John McKee

Won 3-of-6 lifetime starts and was third in each of the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. Trainer Robert Holthus makes his third Derby start while talented young rider makes his Derby debut. In-the-money 5-of-6 starts might be good gimmicks play.

20. Quintons Gold Rush

20-1, Corey Nakatani

Was the last to qualify for the field with a final victory in the Lexington Stakes on April 17. Switched from the Mike Mitchell barn in California, where he was unplaced in the San Rafael and Santa Anita Derby, to the Steve Asmussen stable for the victory. Although the trainer leads the nation in races won, a victory from post 20 is a tall order. Jockey makes his 10th Derby start. May lose too much ground to overcome.

OK, now the time of reckoning.

Usually, I make a 1-2-3 selection for the Derby. But this edition poses such an intriguing betting proposition that I am going to take the "knock-it-out-of-the-park" approach.

I am going to box five horses in a $1 superfecta play. Four of the five must finish in the first four positions in order to win the bet. But, if they do, it will lead to a boxcar payoff.

There are so few big event races that offer such a situation, that this is the time and the race to do it. So here goes:

$1 Superfecta Box: Nos. 4-11-15-16-18 (Action This Day, The Cliff's Edge, Smarty Jones, Castledale and Tapit). A $120 total wager.

Have a great Kentucky Derby Day.

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