Schools budget struggles to keep pace with steady growth

Tuesday, April 13, 2004 | 10:55 a.m.

The Clark County School District is poised to overtake Broward County, Fla., as the nation's fifth-largest school district.

Currently in sixth place with 268,357 students, Clark County School District officials predict an enrollment of 280,606 students for the 2004-05 academic year. That would push Clark County above Broward County, which anticipates an enrollment of 279,758. The county includes the Fort Lauderdale area.

"Our challenges are the same whether we're No. 6 or No. 5," said Dusty Dickens, director of zoning and demographics for the district. "We still have a highly mobile population, with a large number of new students moving in as well as a lot of people moving from existing locations within the district to newer homes. Our job is to figure out where they're all going to land."

Broward County, which like Clark County has seen significant population growth over the past decade, expects to add 8,419 students next year.

Clark County anticipates growing by 12,249 students, or 4.56 percent. The district's enrollment has increased between 4 percent and 7 percent for each of the last 10 years.

"The district is doing everything it can to stay ahead of the growth," said Clark County School Board President Susan Brager-Wellman. "We're more than halfway done with the ($3.5 billion) bond program the voters were so generous with and we already know we'll need to go back and ask for more help in a few years.

"I think the public is becoming more accepting of the fact that the district doesn't just need to build new schools for new students but we also need to maintain the facilities we already have."

The Las Vegas Valley continues to add hotel rooms, along with opportunities for jobs in travel and tourism, said Keith Schwer, executive director of the Center for Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Southern Nevada also continues to benefit from California's economic downturn as new residents flock to greener pastures, Schwer said. Even with its own strong economic development it appears Broward County won't keep up, Schwer said.

There may be some cache to moving into the Top 5 list but it also raises questions and concerns about the district, Schwer said.

"Some people have argued the bigger things get the more unruly they become," Schwer said. "What is the most efficient size for a school district? When is the economy of scale outweighed by the inefficiency?"

The district's enrollment predictions have typically been spot-on, coming within less than 1 percent of the actual number of students. The exception was following Sept. 11, when the district's enrollment fell nearly 4,000 students short of predictions resulting in a budget shortfall of 2.7 million.

Because of that the district decided last year to use the lowest of the enrollment projection scenarios for the 2002-03 academic year. The district wound up with 4.3 percent growth -- the lowest in a decade -- and 463 more students than projected.

This year the economic rebound appears to be continuing and the district is once again relying on its "most likely" enrollment projection in calculating the 2003-04 operating budget.