Monday, Sept. 29, 2003 | 11:18 a.m.
With water conservation measures in place, Southern Nevada could show a decrease in the use of Lake Mead water for the first time since 1998, water officials said.
Despite a population that continues to grow by about 70,000 people a year, water officials hope that the local demand for water will be at or below 300,000 acre-feet, the basic allocation that Nevada receives from the federal Bureau of Reclamation.
Preliminary federal estimates peg last year's demand at 325,000 acre-feet.
"It looks like we have cut back," said Kay Brothers, deputy general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
The Bureau of Reclamation estimates that at the use levels now in place, the total consumption from the lake this year would be 277,000 acre-feet. One acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons, or enough water for a typical family for one year.
So far this year, the bureau has estimated that Southern Nevada has used about 240,000 acre-feet.
Water officials warned, however, that the number could change radically -- and not just because use would increase.
"The number could be wrong, or it could change really fast," said water authority spokesman J.C. Davis.
Brothers said the gauge used by federal agencies to estimate the use from the lake can easily be 10 to 15 percent off -- a figure that would put the region near or even over the 300,000 acre-foot level.
"I would be thrilled if the 277 (277,000 acre-feet) number ended up being accurate," Pat Mulroy, water authority general manager, said. "I would not take that number to the bank.
"That number can fluctuate. We are trying to validate that number."
If the estimate does prove to be accurate, people should get the credit -- but also a warning.
"It would be dynamite if this community really is able to conserve that much," Mulroy said. "But the community cannot stop at this point. We can't say, 'Oh wonderful, let's abandon our conservation plan.' "
The region has been on a conservation plan since this summer due to the drought.
The long-term problem is that while the Las Vegas population continues to grow, the snowfall in the Rocky Mountains, the source for the Colorado River and Lake Mead, continues to be woefully short of average.
Brothers told the water authority board Friday that the Colorado River system holds only 58 percent of capacity, a figure reflected in the plummeting levels within Lake Mead.
"We still have a problem," Mulroy said. "Next year is worse than this year. It all depends on the snowfall this winter."
Gleaning some margin of water from Lake Mead would allow the water authority to recharge ground water in Southern Nevada, "banking" that water against future needs.
Whatever margin can be gleaned from lowered demand can potentially go toward the region's growing need. The water authority has included conservation in its long-range demand projections.
The agency also hopes to continue banking water against future demand as the population also continues to grow by about 70,000 people a year. The banked water is designed to fill shortfalls that would come into play within a decade because of population growth.
Drought, which could cut even the basic allotment from Lake Mead for Southern Nevada and other users of Colorado River water, could force the water authority to turn to banked water earlier. There is enough banked water for about one year with present demand levels.
"We don't know how long this drought is going to last," Mulroy said. "We need every acre-foot we can bank at this point."
In a decade, large-scale projects to bring water to the region from groundwater sources north of Clark County should come on line. Even more ambitious efforts to build desalinization plants on the Pacific Ocean are under consideration. But until those efforts bear fruit, conservation is one of the most important elements of the resource plan, water officials say.
The early and tentative information on the impact of new conservation measures comes as the water authority is looking at new measures that the region would take if the drought continues.
Friday, the water authority board, which includes elected representatives from Clark County and the county's cities, received recommendations from a citizens' committee on what to do if a "drought emergency" is declared. Brothers and other officials predict that short of a significant snowfall in the Rockies this winter, the third and most severe stage of drought response could go into effect in January 2005.
Most of the recommendations would extend the restrictions already in place. Some new policies recommended by the 28 members of the citizens' committee would be to publish names of frequent violators of water-use restrictions; further tighten landscaping codes; and establish tight budgets for water use by government agencies, parks and schools.
Penalties for waste also would be increased and flagrant violators could have to attend a water conservation class. The committee also recommended weekly, monthly and annual "report cards" publicizing the success or lack of if in terms of reaching conservation goals.
The committee also recommended a potential credit for those who save water: cash credit on water bills for those who use water efficiently.
Despite what water officials say is a pressing need for conservation, some critics have charged that the restrictions now in place -- and higher bills -- are not needed. What the critics want is to close the door on further population increases to Southern Nevada.
"Colorado River droughts are not unprecendented events that must necessarily surprise us," Bruce Rugar, a critic and Las Vegas landlord, told the board Friday. "Having been caught unprepared by the current drought, the water authority failed its primary mission: to provide adequate water resources.
"The question is whether you are going to continue to betray your obligations to your current customers by making additional commitments to deliver water to new customers."
Economists and politicians have warned that cutting off water to new development or imposing some other restriction on development could have devastating impacts on the local economy.
The water authority board on Friday authorized a $160,000 study to find out what the impact would be. The board by a 7-0 vote authorized local analysts Hobbs, Ong and Associates to find three local and three regional economists to study the effects of a growth cutoff.
A 1992 study predicted Depression-era levels of unemployment if growth suddenly halted. Construction is the region's second largest industrial employer, with more than 70,000 people working directly in residential and commercial construction.
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