Rivalry games make for tough forecasting

Adam Candee

Thursday, Sept. 25, 2003 | 9:53 a.m.

Ever watch a nasty gray set of clouds roll in from a distance, knowing that you are literally enjoying the calm before the storm?

That is the feeling here at Prep Picks Central, where a host of evenly matched contests this week makes the prognositcation a bit more difficult than normal. Add in a couple of rivalry games and the short week of preparation for Thursday night contests, and the potential for the storm clouds to settle right above our heads is huge.

With that insecure-sounding caveat throw out there, here's our look at Week 5, the beginning of division play ...

Today's Games, 6 p.m. (unless noted)

Silverado (1-3) at Coronado (3-1)

The skinny: We love these little rivalry games. The Cougars have impressed early on, with junior quarterback Andrew Hatch sparking an improved offense. The Skyhawks are also putting up points behind quarterback Nick McCombs. The difference is that Coronado can play defense.

The pick: Coronado 27, Silverado 17

Green Valley (1-3) at Foothill (4-0)

The skinny: The rebuilding project at Green Valley continues, as the Gators have scored just 20 points this season and Greg Murphy does not have the manpower to compete. After this week, the Foothill schedule goes Centennial, Basic, Coronado. The Falcons cannot lose this game, and they won't.

The pick: Foothill 45, Green Valley 0

Cheyenne (2-2) at Centennial (3-1)

The skinny: The wheels have not come off at Cheyenne. Right now, there are no wheels at all. The Desert Shields must get out of this rut, and running back David Peeples must lead them out. That is a tall order against a sound Centennial team, but we'll say the Shields wake up in their first road game in a month.

The pick: Cheyenne 19, Centennial 17

Las Vegas (4-0) at Eldorado (1-3)

The skinny: Eldorado deserves loads of credit for taking both Centennial and Cimarron-Memorial to overtime, but you have to wonder how many times the Sundevils can fall short after coming so close without losing some steam. Las Vegas will not be caught off guard, and the Wildcats' secondary can contain Eldorado's passing attack.

The pick: Las Vegas 23, Eldorado 13

Rancho (3-1) at Valley (1-3)

The skinny: Only one question to answer here: How will Rancho respond to a shocking loss to Bonanza? The Rams are a better team than the Vikings, but this is a game Rancho could easily lose if it does not quickly regroup. There is a strong smell of upset in the air here, but we'll give the Rams one more week.

The pick: Rancho 14, Valley 13

Clark (0-4) at Bonanza (1-3)

The skinny: Give the Bengals their props for taking care of a good Rancho team. Bonanza finally played enough defense to allow its respectable offense to win a game. It hasn't been much fun at Clark this year, and that doesn't look to be changing this week.

The pick: Bonanza 30, Clark 11

Western (1-3) at Sierra Vista (1-3)

The skinny: We thought these two teams might make some noise this year, but that has not yet happened. Sierra Vista's 7-0 win against Eldorado is still one of the year's stranger results, while Western's lone victory came against Valley. When in doubt, we'll stick with the home team.

The pick: Sierra Vista 13, Western 7

Bishop Gorman (2-2) at Durango (2-2)

The skinny: This traditional rivalry is spicier than in years past because no one knows what is up with either of these teams. The Gaels served notice at Cheyenne that they are coming around, while Durango still confounds after struggling with Mojave. Flip a coin for control of the Southwest.

The pick: Bishop Gorman 16, Durango 14

Desert Pines (2-2) at Chaparral (2-2)

The skinny: This is the week's most evenly matched contest. Desert Pines is just starting to feel out an identity with its running game and the Jaguars still might be dangerous this year. The Cowboys have been blown out only once, but they may not have the speed to keep up with the Jaguars.

The pick: Desert Pines 20, Chaparral 16

Cim.-Memorial (3-1) at Palo Verde (4-0)

The skinny: It is time to see if Palo Verde and its new offensive prowess are for real. Cimarron is the first real contender that the Panthers are facing, and the Spartans look tough under their new coaching staff. It should be a close game, and we can't help but look at last year's score ...

The pick: Palo Verde 2, C-M 0

Mojave (1-3) at Basic (4-0)

The skinny: It would be very easy for Basic to overlook Mojave in the week only non-division game. The Rattlers are displaying some vastly upgraded offense, but offense is what Basic does. It may be a shootout, but we see no reason to go against the Wolves.

The pick: Basic 50, Mojave 30

Virgin Valley (3-0) at Liberty (0-3), 7 p.m

The skinny: We'd like to say it gets easier for the Patriots this week against a 3A school. But Virgin Valley is one of the best that class has to offer, and Liberty could be in for another long day -- hopefully not as long as the others.

The pick: Virgin Valley 28, Liberty 13

Shadow Ridge (1-3) at Pahrump (2-1), 7 p.m.

The skinny: The Mustangs are competing every week and that is a big compliment for a first-year team. The challenge for Shadow Ridge is to stay focused after making the trip to Pahrump, where the Mustangs will find a decent opponent.

The pick: Shadow Ridge 23, Pahrump 20