Friday, Nov. 7, 2003 | 10:41 a.m.
Noon, Sam Boyd Stadium TV: KFBT (Ch. 6) Radio: KBAD-AM (920)
WHEN SAN DIEGO STATE HAS THE BALL
San Diego State run offense vs. UNLV run defense
True freshman running back Lynell Hamilton was rated one of the nation's top 15 prep running backs last year at Edison High in Stockton, Calif., with schools like Oklahoma, Michigan, Oregon and Colorado hot on his trail. He ended up making the Aztecs his choice, however, after his parents vetoed his decision to play for the Ducks. Needs just seven yards to become only the 59th freshman in college history to rush for a 1,000 yards and 437 yards in the Aztecs' final three games to surpass Marshall Faulk's freshman total of 1,429 yards. Had 218 yards on 40 carries in his last game against Wyoming two weeks ago after being held to less than 100-yards in four straight games. UNLV's defense is allowing just 139.6 yards per game rushing this year and has allowed just two backs -- Kansas' Clark Green (117 yards) and New Mexico's DonTrell Moore (130) -- to break th e 100-yard mark in nine games.
Edge: UNLV.
San Diego State pass offense vs. UNLV pass defense
San Diego State quarterback Adam Hall picked UNLV apart a year ago at Qualcomm Stadium completing 28 of 45 passes for 319 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. But the three receivers who caused the Rebels the most grief -- J.R. Tolver (9 catches, 151 yards, two TDs), Ronnie Davenport (9 catches, 73 yards) and Kassim Osgood (5 catches, 40 yards) -- have all moved on and Hall missed most of the first half of the season with a severe ankle injury. The Aztecs have thrown more interceptions (14) than touchdown passes (8) and rank just 102nd in pass efficiency. UNLV, led by safety Jamaal Brimmer and junior corner Ruschard Dodd-Masters, lead the MWC with 13 interceptions including two that they've run back for touchdowns.
Edge: UNLV.
WHEN UNLV HAS THE BALL
UNLV run offense vs. San Diego State run defense
Senior tailback Larry Croom was one of the unsung heros of the Rebels'37-35 upset of New Mexico rushing for 75 very tough yards against a Lobos defense that didn't have to worry about the pass most of the night. San Diego State ranks third in the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense allowing just 129.3 yards per game but the Aztecs have yet to face the two top rushing teams in the conference, Air Force and Colorado State, and that mark includes games against two I-AA teams, Eastern Washington and Samford. Both BYU (238) and New Mexico (207) ran for over 200 yards against SDSU. With quarterback Kurt Nantkes slowed by a groin injury, the Rebels know they have to be able to run the ball to have a chance at a win.
Edge: UNLV.
UNLV pass offense vs. San Diego State pass defense
With Nantkes a big question mark with a groin injury, an already erratic passing attack that seemed to finally get in sync in the first half of last week's 37-35 upset of New Mexico figures to struggle. Nantkes' backups are true freshman Shane Steichen, who has never taken a Division 1-A snap, and sophomore Scott Turner, who has an average arm at best. San Diego State, meanwhile, leads the Mountain West Conference and is 10th nationally in pass defense allowing just 169.8 yards per game. How good is the Aztec secondary? Well, Craig Krenzel and defending national champion Ohio State managed to complete just 5 of 20 passes for 76 yards and no touchdowns in their 16-13 victory in Columbus earlier this year.
Edge: San Diego State.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Two of the top placekickers in the conference square off in Mountain West special teams player of the week Dillon Pieffer, who has connected on 15 of 19 field goal tries (78.9%) including a key 50-yarder at New Mexico last week, and Aztec J.C. Mejia (15 of 20, 75%), who like Pieffer this week was named a Groza Award semifinalist. UNLV punter Gary Cook is a Ray Guy Award semifinalist and gets the punting edge over Aztec Seth Santoro, who has dropped 15 punts inside the 20-yard-line and also is very good. The Rebels, thanks to redshirt freshman Tremayne Kirkland (14.0 avg.), get the nod in punt returns.
Edge: UNLV.
INTANGIBLES
A win over the Aztecs would make the Rebels bowl eligible with six wins and put them back in the thick of the hunt for a Las Vegas Bowl bid. San Diego State, meanwhile, must win its final three games against the Rebels, Colorado State and Air Force to even become bowl eligible because of their two Division 1-AA games. The big key will be how effective Rebel quarterback Kurt Nantkes can be after missing most of practice this week with a groin injury and just how long he can last without getting reinjured against a strong, blitzing San Diego State squad. The Aztecs are the fresher team coming off a bye but had to deal with the major distraction of the fires in their area which forced them to limit their practice time last week and nearly burned down the house of head coach Tom Craft. The Rebels seem to have confidence back after an improbable must-win at New Mexico.
Edge: UNLV.
COACHING
Tom Craft won three national championships at Palomar Junior College in San Marcos , Calif., and is highly regarded for his innovative pass offenses. However, this is only his second year as a Division 1-A head coach and he is only 8-14 in that span as he tries to rebuild his alma mater into the powerhouse it was during the old PCAA days of the 70's. John Robinson's decision to adjust his defensive scheme to one similiar to New Mexico's highly successful blitzing 3-3-5 formation continues to pay big dividends as the Rebels lead the MWC and are sixth nationally in turnover margin.
Edge: UNLV.
KEYS TO VICTORY
To win, San Diego State must ...
1. Make the most of their scoring chances. In their four wins, the Aztecs have been in the red zone 19 times and scored on 17 occasions, including 10 touchdowns.
2. Get to the quarterback. Whether it's Kurt Nantkes or Shane Steichen or Scott Turner, the Aztecs need to pressure the quarterback early and often.
3. Get the early lead. UNLV is just 1-3 this season when its opponent scores first and hasn't shown the passing attack to be able to come back late in games.
To win, UNLV must ...
1. Run the football. With Kurt Nantkes at less than 100 percent, it's imperative the Rebels be able to run the ball for some big gains.
2. Force turnovers. The Rebels are 3-1 when forcing three or more turnovers in a game, including wins against Wisconsin, Hawaii and New Mexico.
3. Stop the run. The Aztecs are 4-1 when they rush for 100 yards or more in a game and 0-4 when they don't.
THE PICK UNLV 23, San Diego State 16
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