Columnist Dean Juipe: Forget the favorite, root for a different horse

Dean Juipe

Friday, May 2, 2003 | 10:16 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

Somewhere between the paddock and the barn I must have missed something. A clue, a meeting of the minds, a sign from above ... something definitive like that.

Whatever it was, I wasn't privy to it.

And, as a result, when the Kentucky Derby is contested Saturday in Louisville I'll be among a minority of viewers expecting a grueling, competitive race that could go any number of ways.

I'll be looking for the type of race that was being forecast a month or two ago.

I won't be anticipating a rout, a race monopolized by a single horse.

I won't be among the many who maintain Empire Maker is far and away the class of the field.

What happened here, anyhow? For weeks everything I'd seen pertaining to this year's Derby was saddled with indecision; all kinds of horses were being projected as potential champions if not betting favorites.

But then Empire Maker wins the Wood Memorial (April 12) and suddenly those in the know cast the other contenders aside as if they were mere afterthoughts.

Just like that, Empire Maker went from one of the boys to something of an unbridled favorite. He's 6-5 to win with Jerry Bailey aboard, which makes him the strongest Derby favorite in 11 years.

Goodbye, suspense. Hello, Triple Crown conjecture.

But I think people have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves. I think they've forgotten how closely grouped many of these horses seemed to be just a short time ago.

I think the desire to see a dominant horse romp to a Triple Crown is so strong, it has splattered mud on the experts' goggles. Their view is clouded by wishful thinking.

Not that Empire Maker won't be that great horse we've all been waiting for. If he is, I'll be among the many who will be ecstatic to see a Triple Crown champion.

But I'm still taking all the stuff I read and heard back in January, February and March seriously. I'm still of the opinion that there are at least five horses that can win the Derby and that the 16-horse field only works against the favorite.

Besides, Empire Maker has a bad hoof. His right front was injured in the Wood and aggravated during a workout this week.

His handlers did nothing more than walk him Wednesday, and Thursday they pronounced him fit after the colt jogged around the Churchill Downs track.

I'm not so sure. I'm inclined to believe a horse that requires a modified shoe, as they'll have on Empire Maker for the race, is one who isn't entirely healthy.

I might take Oscar De La Hoya against Yory Boy Campas even if the big favorite comes down with a minor injury, but it's a little different in a horse race where congestion and legitimate challengers abound.

Oscar has to worry only about Yory Boy, but Empire Maker has a fleet of upset-minded, oat-eating, jockey-carrying rivals who haven't been reading the Great One's press clippings.

For instance, Atswhatimtalknbout was getting considerable attention until a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, but what's to say he won't bounce back?

He's down to 12-1, which would seem to have some value.

Buddy Gil, at 8-1, is another horse thought to have been Empire Maker's equal not too long ago.

Same with Ten Most Wanted (at 6-1) and Peace Rules (at 8-1).

Yet on the eve of the race they're being slighted. They're being treated as if they're something that was once peculiar to horse racing but is now a part of our everyday lexicon.

Without the race, the run for the roses, having even been run, they're being tagged as also-rans.