‘Net gamblers wager on how long Saddam will last

Matt Crenson

Friday, March 28, 2003 | 9:45 a.m.

Think Saddam Hussein's days are numbered? Care to put a little money on it?

If so, tune up your Web browser to one of the many Internet gambling sites taking bets on how long America's most wanted despot will hold onto the presidency of Iraq.

Big money is riding on the question -- about $1.25 million in wagers just on one site, www.tradesports.com.

Thursday, the site put Saddam's chances of lasting in office through Monday at about 90 percent. But he was given only a 1 in 3 chance of being in power at the end of April.

Betonsports.com, which bills itself as the Internet's "largest, legal and licensed sportsbook," puts Saddam's chances of remaining in Baghdad until June 30 at 1 in 15. The site offers 5-to-1 odds he will be in U.S. hands by then.

Some may consider wagering on the forceful ouster of a despot to be in poor taste. Not Eric Zitzewitz, a Stanford University economics professor who is using tradesports.com as a research tool.

"Yeah, war is a terrible thing. But you'd like to have information about it," and the site has potential to provide it, he says.

Tradesports.com doesn't set any odds. Its bets are set up as futures contracts that bettors buy and sell directly to one another. The most active "Saddam security" pays $100 if Iraq's leader is ousted by March 30. If he's still ruling on that date, it pays nothing.

The future sold at around $60 when trading began back in September and it looked like Saddam had about a fair chance of lasting until spring. Then its price declined to about $25 as the U.N. Security Council debated and Iraq agreed to admit weapons inspectors, a tactic that increased Saddam's chances of hanging on through March.

The price rebounded when in December U.S. Secretary of But the real action began after the bombs started to fly on March 19. The price of the March 30 Saddam future jumped from $19 to a high of $88, an indication that most people believed the Iraqi leader would be out within days.

But over the weekend it became clear that the second Gulf War would be longer than the first. With the contract set to expire in less than 10 days, the price of the March 30 future quickly eroded. By Thursday afternoon it was trading at around $10.