Columnist Erin Neff: State’s financial future hangs in political balance

Erin Neff

Friday, March 14, 2003 | 5:06 a.m.

CARSON CITY -- No matter what is thrown at the Legislative Building to help influence the tax debate, it seems to run smack into the wall and break apart.

Each day there is something new.

Studies scream that Nevada must diversify its tax base. Thousands jam education meetings begging the state for funds. The census tells us that only four states pay less per student than we do.

But lawmakers aren't so much looking for that type of pro-tax ammunition as much as they are seeking political cover for the election down the road.

While legislators worry about would-be primary opponents, others place their fears elsewhere.

The governor worries about the threat of war and another potential downturn in the economy.

The public frets about access to doctors and a lack of nurses, classroom materials and good teachers.

Lawmakers' worries may be misplaced.

In 1991 when the business license tax was instituted, many lawmakers fretted that it would cost them their jobs. It didn't. In fact, some of those who voted against it lost.

In 2003 the state's shortfall requires massive amounts of new revenue, (Read: massive taxes). So while it may have been OK to raise one business tax, nobody is quite ready to produce an election mailer hyping support for 12 or more new taxes.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, and Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins, D-Henderson, have the toughest jobs in Carson City right now because of the looming elections.

Both know the state needs new revenue, but neither wants the burden of imposing a record tax bill alone. They have caucuses to keep intact and votes to round up.

For Raggio there is the added difficulty of a potential split with Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn over the $1 billion tax plan. But he could also escape scrutiny of his tax vote by retiring.

Perkins has it worse. He risks losing Democratic support of any tax plan if he sides too closely with Guinn, risks admonitions from teachers and state employees if he doesn't, and must appease everyone in order to come out of the session clean for the 2006 governor's race.

If either leader knew they could pull it off, they'd ask the chairmen of the taxation committees to vote Guinn's emergency tax proposal out of committee.

But neither has the votes from campaign-wary colleagues.

Perhaps during the remaining 11 weeks of the session they'll be able to round up some votes thanks to the news that might occur.

There is the very real potential for layoffs, service cuts and reductions in programs. And those could have the types of impacts that do matter.

Let's say the already-gutted Department of Corrections budget is subject to more cuts, and a prison guard -- whose co-workers have been laid off -- is injured or killed at work.

What if teachers march en masse to Carson City, if parents flood lawmakers with calls and if administrators make good on threats to sue for adequate funding?

Since Nevada can't even find an extra $10,000 lying around for some programs, imagine what paying a multibillion-dollar lawsuit settlement would do.

One third of the session is now complete and lawmakers are further from a tax solution than they were on Feb. 3.

Until political futures are a bit more secure, the state's financial future won't be.