MWC Men’s Capsules

Wednesday, March 12, 2003 | 10:07 a.m.

Updated March 12, 2003

Compiled by Sun staff writer Steve Guiremand

Air Force

Record: 12-15, 3-11 MWC; RPI: 159.

Head coach: Joe Scott, 3rd season

First round: vs. No. 1 Utah, 6 p.m., Thursday. Lost season series, 2-0.

Top player: Sophomore guard Tim Keller led the Mountain West Conference and ranks seventh nationally in 3-point shooting, connecting on 46.1 percent of his attempts. He was a third team all-Mountain West pick.

Don't overlook: Long-armed junior forward Joel Gerlach, one of the conference's best shot blockers, comes into the tournament on a roll offensively, scoring in double figures in five straight games while shooting 69.4 percent (25 of 36) from the field in that span.

Why they will win: If they can get past the quarterfinal game with the Utes, the Falcons will be playing teams that will have little preparation time for their tricky Princeton-style offense. And unless they play UNLV, they'll be the crowd favorite. Everyone like the underdog.

Why they won't win: Falcons just don't have enough manpower, particularly up front, to win three physical games in three consecutive nights.

BYU

Record: 22-7, 11-3 MWC; RPI: 15.

Head coach: Steve Cleveland, 6th season

First round: vs. No. 7 New Mexico, noon, Thursday. Won season series, 2-0.

Top player: Senior guard Travis Hansen, who shared conference defensive player of the year honors with UNLV's Marcus Banks, ranks eighth in Mountain West Conference career scoring with 1,083 points.

Don't overlook: Junior center Rafael Araujo. The muscular 6-foot-11, 260-pounder, a member of the Brazilan National Team, was a third team all-Mountain West choice and is a load to handle inside. He also is skilled enough to shoot the mid-range jumper and run the floor on the break.

Why they will win: The Cougars have the deepest team in the conference and can beat you in a variety of ways. They also are an excellent defensive squad, holding 14 opponents to 40 percent or less shooting from the floor.

Why they won't win: BYU is just 1-3 against Utah and UNLV this year, two teams they'll likely have to defeat to win the tournament.

Colorado State

Record: 16-13, 5-9 MWC; RPI: 99.

Head coach: Dale Layer, 3rd season

First round: vs. No. 3 Wyoming, 2:30 p.m., Thursday. Lost season series, 2-0.

Top player: Matt Nelson, a 7-foot sophomore center, earned third team all-Mountain West honors after shooting a remarkable 67.4 percent from the floor and averaging 16.1 points per game. Nelson, who rarely practiced the last two months of the season because of a knee injury, has shot 50 percent or better from the floor in all but three games this year.

Don't overlook: Versatile senior forward Brian Greene, a first team all-District 13 choice who will be on a mission after getting snubbed by all-Mountain West voters. Greene ranks fifth in MWC history in both scoring (1,189 points) and rebounding (644).

Why they will win: The Rams seemed to find their second wind after a seven-game conference losing streak, winning two of their final three games, including a 66-65 shocker over No. 23 Utah.

Why they won't win: Lack of a true point guard has been CSU's Achilles' heel, especially against athletic backcourts like UNLV and Wyoming.

New Mexico

Record: 10-17, 4-10 MWC; RPI: 164.

Head coach: Ritchie McKay, 1st season

First round: vs. No. 2 BYU, noon, Thursday. Lost season series, 2-0.

Top player: Senior guard Ruben Douglas was named the Mountain West Conference player of the year after averaging 33.9 points per game in league play and shooting 49.6 percent from 3-point range. Douglas leads the nation in scoring with a 28.33 average.

Don't overlook: Freshman guard Mark Walters, who had his share of supporters for MWC freshman of the year. Walters averaged 9.4 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in Douglas' shadow.

Why they will win: If Douglas gets on a roll and his improving supporting cast can hold their own, the Lobos are capable of defeating anybody, including conference co-champion Utah, whom they defeated, 76-69, on March 1 at The Pit.

Why they won't win: Lack of a dependable front line will come back to haunt New Mexico against bigger, stronger teams in the tournament.

San Diego State

Record: 15-12, 6-8 MWC; RPI: 91.

Head coach: Steve Fisher, 4th season

First round: vs. No. 4 UNLV, 9 p.m., Thursday. Lost season series, 2-0.

Top player: Senior guard Tony Bland, a second team all-Mountain West pick, has registered 22 double-figure scoring games this season and has had six games with 20 or more points.

Don't overlook: Flashy forward Evan Burns, the MWC freshman of the year and a former McDonald's All-American, who finished the year with a flourish, averaging 16 points and 6.8 rebounds in his last five games.

Why they will win: Confidence. The Aztecs were also a No. 5 seed last year and won the tournament, defeating quarterfinal opponent UNLV, 78-75, in the title game to earn an automatic NCAA Tournament berth.

Why they won't win: San Diego State's defense was one of the worst in the conference at the end of the season. Both Colorado State (63 percent) and UNLV (62 percent) had banner shooting days against the Aztecs.

UNLV

Record: 19-9, 8-6 MWC; RPI: 44.

Head coach: Charlie Spoonhour, 2nd season

First round: vs. No. 5 San Diego State, 9 p.m., Thursday. Won season series, 2-0.

Top player: Senior point guard Marcus Banks, a two-time Mountain West Conference defensive player of the year, leads the league in assists (5.5 apg), steals (2.82 spg) and finished second to only New Mexico's Ruben Douglas in scoring with a 20.5 average.

Don't overlook: Senior swingman Jermaine Lewis, one of the conference's top defenders who has finally regained his 3-point shooting touch, hitting 21 of 40 treys (52.5 percent) in the last eight games.

Why they will win: Besides having the advantage of playing on their home court, the Rebels were the Mountain West's hottest team down the stretch, winning seven of their last nine games.

Why they won't win: With guard Demetrius Hunter (Achilles' tendinitis) still hobbled, the Rebels could lack the quality depth to win three tough games in three nights.

Utah

Record: 23-6, 11-3 MWC; RPI: 17.

Head coach: Rick Majerus, 14th season

First round: vs. No. 8 Air Force, 6 p.m., Thursday. Won season series, 2-0.

Top player: Sophomore point guard Marc Jackson was arguably the conference's MVP the first half of the season and provides the Utes with a much-needed offensive boost off the bench.

Don't overlook: Junior guard Nick Jacobson, who might be the best pure 3-point shooter in the conference (42 percent) and is also a good defender.

Why they will win: The Utes have talent, depth and the great coaching of Majerus. They play excellent defense and rarely beat themselves with turnovers or bad possessions.

Why they won't win: Senior forward Britton Johnsen, the 2001-02 Mountain West player of the year and a future NBA player, stayed home to rest after it was discovered he has infectious mononucleosis and an enlarged spleen.

Wyoming

Record: 20-9, 8-6 MWC; RPI: 55.

Head coach: Steve McClain, 5th season

First round: vs. No. 6 Colorado State, 2:30 p.m., Thursday. Won season series, 2-0.

Top player: Powerful 6-foot-10, 260-pound senior center Uche Nsonwu-Amadi commands double teams in the post and still had a conference-high 11 double-doubles this season. He led the MWC in rebounds with an average of 9.7 per game.

Don't overlook: Senior guard Donta Richardson, who joined Nsonwu-Amadi on the all-Mountain West first team. He's averaging 19.5 points in his last 20 games.

Why they will win: The Pokes are tournament tough. They have four starters back from a squad that upset Gonzaga in the first round of the NCAA West Regional and then gave Arizona all it could handle before losing, 68-60.

Why they won't win: Cowboys miss all-MWC forward Marcus Bailey (knee) in crunch time and sputtered badly down the stretch, winning just four of their final 10 games.