Columnist Jon Ralston: Oblivious to the war drums

Friday, March 7, 2003 | 5:40 a.m.

Unless you are living in a media-free environment or, perhaps, Paris, you know that the United States is about to go to war with Iraq. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but someday and soon.

President Bush all but told the world (again) last week. Gov. Kenny Guinn has been trying to tell the Gang of 63 the consequences for months. But legislators have somehow turned a deaf ear to the war drums and, in some cases gleefully, have decided that cutting critical programs is better than passing an insurance policy against an almost-certain budget downturn.

The craven behavior fails to surprise. But what continues to astound is how these folks can either abdicate their responsibility or dissimulate with impunity.

The facts are these: If they don't pass the $80 million that the governor says is needed to ensure no cuts are necessary in the current fiscal year (that's the one that ends in June, for legislators who don't quite get it), then they are risking hundreds, perhaps thousands of layoffs and, potential slashes in programs that will hit nearly everyone. And you know what, folks? Lawmakers don't care.

This is all about common sense, an uncommon quality in the capital, where fear (of un-election) and loathing (the Gang of 63 for the governor and vice-versa) are the main motivations. Guinn might rather the Legislature didn't exist. But the Legislative Building is populated with elected officials who think they are mini-governors, even though they are happy not to have the accompanying responsibility.

When state Sen. Sandra Tiffany was grilling budget boss Perry Comeaux about whether or not the money was really needed, I thought I saw a bit of saliva dribble out of her mouth as she talked about what might happen if lawmakers ignored the governor's call: Just make cuts.

What lawmakers are not telling their constituents as they make their faux no-tax stand is that they will pass this tax increase. They just don't want to do it now. You see, that would force them to vote twice on taxes -- once now on this stopgap plan, and then again on the billion-dollar baby toward session's end. The early money would be rolled into the overall tax increase if it's not needed; if it is, then lawmakers have simply funded a smart, pro-active insurance policy.

This is pure, pathetic politics at its worst. The only -- repeat, only -- reason they are not passing this tax now is because of the timing. Some legislators privately begged the administration for blood-in-the-streets scenarios to be painted so they could justify voting for the early taxes. Without that -- and the administration's wonkish, tepid presentation did not help -- the votes are not there.

Afraid of being crucified by those who might vote them out of office, lawmakers want to wash their hands of any responsibility for properly supplying the rainy day fund. Some argued that tapping the emergency money now is appropriate because that is what the fund was created to do. But if it's raining now, when war begins, it will be at least a downpour and possibly a 100-day storm.

Does anyone doubt there will be an impact if a war begins? Gubernatorial aide Mike Hillerby told lawmakers the reserves only have enough cash to fund 19 days of state operations. If cash flow dries up because of conflict in Iraq, then what?

There are legitimate points of debate. But they have to do with the methods the governor has recommended to raise this money, not the necessity of doing so.

The $80 million would come from raising slot route taxes, increasing sin taxes and boosting the employee head tax. Few lawmakers are opposed to the sin tax and long-overdue slot route levies. But tripling the business license tax increase surely is worthy of some argument.

The administration is using this ill-conceived method because it is simple and quick. And Guinn would use the tripling of the business license tax as a way to raise revenue beyond this fiscal year, to keep the coffers flush until the gross receipts tax is in place. (Funny that the chamber folks have supported doubling the business license tax, which hits its members hard, but opposed the gross receipts, which exempts most of them. I'm sure the members will think it's hilarious.)

But lawmakers don't want to talk substance; they want to talk politics. Even though Comeaux, as straight a shooter as the administration has, told them it makes good financial sense, lawmakers simply believe it doesn't make sound political sense.

And that's really what this entire session is about, folks -- whether Guinn and others (gaming, teachers, education activists) can make the politics work for a group of legislators that would rather pander to their constituents than fix a manifest problem. The Gang of 63 thinks it can, as so many before them have done, put it off until the next session. And the next. And the next.

The real story is that lawmakers believe they lose nothing by not passing the early tax money. They won't have to make the cuts. Guinn will.

And then they can finally act as though they are a governor, which is what most of them want to be. In fact, they will be behaving like one of the most well-known governors in history.

His name was Pontius Pilate.