Columnist Dean Juipe: Early tests may reveal UNLV’s fate

Dean Juipe

Friday, June 20, 2003 | 10:17 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

Of course it's premature.

Obviously it's too early.

Yet the college football magazines are starting to reach the newsstands and it's never too soon to get a preliminary feel for what may be in store this fall.

In UNLV's case, that means a season in which the Rebels under the best of circumstances could contend for the Mountain West championship, and under the worst be relegated to also-ran status within the first three or four weeks of the conference schedule.

These impressions are subject to change, but I went through their schedule and projected the Rebels to finish 3-4 in league play and 5-7 overall. And yet that goes against some optimistic forecasts that label UNLV a "dark horse" contender that might very well post a winning record.

After all, the Rebels are coming off a nice season-ending victory against Colorado State last year and are known to have a quality crew of running backs and receivers and a decent offensive line. They also have a relatively experienced quarterback in Kurt Nantkes -- who backed up Jason Thomas last year -- and a defense that returns six starters.

So you can make a case that the Rebels not only won't be too bad, they might be halfway decent.

But there are areas of concern: Nantkes is still somewhat unproven; the defensive backfield returns only one starter; the kicking game is a habitual question mark; and the schedule is no pushover.

One thing John Robinson has done since becoming head coach is upgrade the schedule and, for that, the fans are appreciative. But, correspondingly, the Rebels have been losing these tougher nonconference games.

Last season they opened 1-3 and in 2001 they opened a devastating 0-4.

It won't be any easier this season as UNLV hosts Toledo, plays at Kansas and Wisconsin and hosts Hawaii in the first four weeks. Then there's a bye, a game at Nevada-Reno and the toughest part of the conference season to follow with Air Force, Utah, BYU and New Mexico in succession. UNLV closes with San Diego State, Colorado State and Wyoming.

The game with Toledo right at the top looks huge and is one I have in UNLV's loss column, although it could go either way. UNLV should then win at lowly Kansas but lose at Wisconsin, which brings it back home for another key game with Hawaii that is a 50-50 proposition.

If the Rebels can handle Toledo and Hawaii -- teams that went 9-5 and 10-4, respectively, last season and are expected to be contenders in their leagues again this year -- it almost certainly will lead to a winning season and a potential bowl bid.

There's some speculation that the Mountain West won't be as tough as usual, and that view is driven by the belief that Air Force won't be quite as imposing, that BYU's 5-7 record a year ago was no fluke and that only Colorado State is assured of fielding a top-notch team.

Conversely, only San Diego State and Wyoming had worse overall records than UNLV's 5-7 last season, making it difficult to fully accept the notion that the Rebels are on the verge of challenging for the league title.

But I think we'll know a lot -- maybe even everything we need to know -- about UNLV after those early games with Toledo and Hawaii.