Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Deadlock sure to have effect in elections, experts say

Predictions about what political impact the current budget impasse could have are as varied as the speculation about the school funding and tax issue that have created the logjam.

But politicians, consultants and lobbyists agree that the ongoing saga of the 2003 Legislature will have a definite impact over the next several elections, beginning with legislative races and spilling over into the gubernatorial election in 2006.

Some believe the incumbents -- of either party and in either house -- will get bounced. Others believe that whichever tax and budget position succeeds will dictate political success.

And still others, such as Assemblyman Bob Beers, R-Las Vegas, boast of big impacts.

"I think that we'll actually take the majority," said Beers, who has helped lead a group of 15 Assembly Republicans taking a stand against the tax increases.

Democrats currently control the Assembly 23-19, and their leader, Speaker Richard Perkins, is planning to run for governor in 2006. Assemblyman David Goldwater, D-Las Vegas, is also considering a run for Congress against Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev.

Although Perkins admits the current legislative impasse is "obviously not good," for his political future, he said he is not alone.

"I don't think there's going to be huge fallout for any individual in any of this," Perkins said. "You can't get into a mud fight without getting mud on you."

Perkins said his caucus position -- united in support of a franchise tax on businesses as part of more than $800 million in new taxes -- is correct and that ultimately standing by that decision will leave him in a better position than some of the Republicans in his house.

"These 15 will have, at some point in time, offended some very important constituencies," Perkins said.

Gaming, mining, construction, labor unions and schools have all aligned in support of the type of new taxes Perkins and the Democrats support.

One veteran GOP adviser said Perkins will face no political damage from his stance on taxes.

"Nobody's blaming him for taxes," the adviser said. "When people wake up and think about the taxes they only see the governor."

Some conservatives believe the four Assembly Republicans who have joined with the 23 Democrats to support tax proposals are most vulnerable.

Beers said the decision those four make "will be between them and their constituents," but he also noted that names are already surfacing to run against one of the four -- Josh Griffin, R-Henderson.

Griffin shrugs aside threats of primary election opponents, and said that while the four yes votes will "probably all catch some primary opponent," he added: "I'm confident of my re-election."

Griffin's district tends to vote Democrat. The other three yes votes are Dawn Gibbons and Jason Geddes, both Reno Republicans, and Joe Hardy, R-Boulder City. Hardy, a former Boulder City councilman, is considered to be in a safe district because the city knows him. Geddes is in a Democratic district and Gibbons is the wife of U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, who created the state's current two-thirds majority vote requirement on taxes.

Republicans who represent conservative rural or northern districts and oppose taxes are also considered to be in safe districts.

History suggests that voting against taxes can actually harm a political future.

After the 1991 session, when lawmakers created the Business Activity Tax, 13 of those who voted against the tax did not return. Seven of the 10 GOP Assembly members who voted no, including now state Sen. Warren Hardy, lost their seats or bowed out of politics after that session.

Scott Craigie, a veteran political consultant who served as then Gov. Bob Miller's chief of staff, said he believes this year's legislative impasse will play out over the next two election cycles.

"I think it's an incumbent vs. nonincumbent battle," Craigie said. "Obviously there's a huge amount of anger out there with different targets."

Craigie said some anger is directed at the 15 who have held out and prevented the 28 votes needed to meet the two-thirds requirement. Just as much is pointed at those who haven't held out.

"Every person, all 63, will be affected," Craigie said.

Perkins is already envisioning what he calls a "tax inoculation" mailer to go out before his next Assembly election in 2004.

"I will show which taxes I voted to support and lay them out for the voters to decide," Perkins said.

Democratic consultant Mike Sullivan said he thinks part of the political fallout depends on how voters learn about the legislative process from media.

"Obviously, you've got the state's largest paper portraying the Republicans as heroes, but the TV station's show them as holding up the process," Sullivan said. "The key to this is going to be which party frames the issue the quickest for the voters."

Sullivan said he believes the GOP is fractured with those like Beers who have led the charge against taxes and others such as Gov. Kenny Guinn and Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, who have proposed or supported the taxes.

Senate Republican Caucus Director Joe Brezny proudly announced at the end of the regular session that he was quitting his position with the state party so that he could engage in political campaigns.

The message -- he was going to personally work against some of those who had worked against Guinn and Raggio. He even talked up Sen. John Ensign's rural Nevada director, Kevin Kirkeby, for a run against Assemblyman Ron Knecht, R-Carson City, next year.

Brezny also said he would work to protect Senate Assistant Majority Leader Ray Rawson, R-Las Vegas, from any primary election opponents. Beers' name has been floated as a potential opponent for Rawson, a moderate Republican considered vulnerable from conservatives.

Most consultants said they believed the entire political dynamic will change drastically if schools are forced to shut down.

The Clark County School District said that without new funding authorizations it will run out of money Aug. 8.

"Cutting schools and shutting down schools has the worst impact," Griffin said. "If the schools shut down, I'm not going to be the one in trouble."

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