Columnist Michael Campbell: Republicans should look at ‘91

Michael Campbell

Saturday, July 5, 2003 | 2:54 a.m.

Michael Campbell is the Sun's editorial page editor

The conventional wisdom in Nevada is that politicians who oppose tax hikes are more likely to win on Election Day, and that those lawmakers who support higher taxes are more likely to struggle, if not lose.

That belief, in large part, strengthened the resolve of a core group of Assembly Republicans who have opposed raising taxes this year. While the GOP-controlled Senate has passed a tax increase by more than a two-thirds majority, the refusal of 15 Assembly Republicans to raise taxes to balance the state budget has set off a fiscal and constitutional crisis.

The Legislature missed its June 30 deadline to have a balanced budget, which is required by the Constitution. The situation led Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn, who supports an increase in taxes, last week to take the unprecedented step of asking the Nevada Supreme Court to force the Legislature to balance the budget. Legislative leaders are meeting this weekend in a bid to reach a compromise to avert intervention by the Supreme Court.

There are a few true believers among the Assembly Republicans' anti-tax crowd, legislators who genuinely believe that government should be reduced dramatically and that taxes should be decreased, not increased. That shouldn't mask the reality, though, that most of these Republicans, especially the freshmen, are afraid that they'll be voted out of office if they increase taxes.

These nervous Republicans should look back at the last time Nevada increased state taxes. That was in 1991, when Democratic Gov. Bob Miller sought to impose the first-ever statewide business tax, part of a tax package that until then was the largest ever proposed in state history.

I remember those days vividly because at the time I was the governor's press secretary. There was incessant opposition to the business tax from a small yet vocal group of Republicans. The antipathy to the taxes sometimes was strongest from Southern Nevada Republican legislators, just as it is today.

Ultimately, Miller scaled back the business tax proposal and was able to get enough votes to pass his overall plan, which was comprised of a new business tax and an increase in the sales tax. The vote in the Assembly to approve the business tax was 27-13. (Two members of the Assembly didn't vote.)

It's interesting that the number of assemblymen voting for the business tax in 1991 was identical to the votes this year for a business tax. The huge difference is that back then there wasn't the two-thirds majority requirement that there is today to pass a tax increase. So that meant a tax plan with 64 percent support of the members of the Assembly, as Miller's had, could become law.

Some Republicans at the time thought that an anti-tax stand could be powerful enough come the next election, to help them take control of the Assembly, which the Democrats held by a 22-20 margin. This also was a time of anti-government fervor in the nation, particularly in Nevada, as a second "Sagebrush Rebellion" was under way.

But a funny thing happened: The Democrats actually gained seven seats in the Assembly on Election Day in 1992, increasing their lead to 29-13. (The Republicans in the Senate, however, did pick up one seat, giving them an 11-10 majority.)

The feared fallout from the tax plan never materialized. Four of the five Assembly Republicans from Southern Nevada who voted against the tax hike -- all freshmen -- were defeated. It wasn't exactly the kind of political realignment Republicans were looking for.

Leaving aside the politics for a moment, the business tax didn't stunt growth as the naysayers had predicted. Indeed, the state's economy hit stratospheric heights during the 1990s, making all those gloom-and-doom predictions look even sillier in hindsight.

Another important lesson is that if politicians level with voters, and explain to them why tax increases are necessary to fund essential government services, the voters will respond intelligently and won't engage in retribution.

Our state has nearly doubled in population since the last time a statewide tax increase was passed -- and in that time our spending on social services and education ranks near the bottom among the states. We're a prosperous state that for too long has acted more like a backwater state.

The kind of anger people have expressed this year over the budget impasse reminds me of the anger the public directed against lawmakers serving in the 1989 Legislature. The controversial issues involved in 1989 and 2003 are completely different, but there are still relevant insights from 1989 into how a growing disconnect between legislators and the public can destroy political careers.

I covered the 1989 Legislature as the Sun's political reporter, and I can vouch that it lived up to its do-nothing reputation. It was a lackluster legislative session devoid of achievement.

The public's view of lawmakers in 1989 grew worse as the session neared its end and they voted themselves a 300 percent increase in their pensions. The legislators that year also thought nothing of taking advantage of a loophole in state law that allowed them to triple their actual costs of traveling between Las Vegas and the state capital.

The votes to pass the pension increase were overwhelming. In the Assembly the vote was 42-0 while in the Senate the vote was 15-5 with one abstention. Legislators didn't follow the lead of Senate Majority Bill Raggio, the Reno Republican, who voted against the tax increase.

(Raggio, who is still the Senate majority leader, backs Guinn's tax increase as an essential way to fund vital government services, including our public schools. He is the kind of adult who unfortunately isn't listened to enough by other lawmakers.)

Legislators also overrode Miller's veto of the pension increase. More than one legislator told me that the public didn't care and that the furor would all blow over by Election Day. Boy, were they wrong.

When lawmakers got back home after the regular session ended they realized just how fierce the public's anger was with them. Lawmakers eventually pleaded with Miller to call a special session so that they could repeal the increase.

While lawmakers unanimously wiped that pension off the books in the 16th special session of the Legislature -- one that lasted just 2 hours, making it the shortest in Nevada history -- they couldn't shake what turned out to be an indelible impression the electorate had of them.

Statewide, 36 percent of Nevada's assemblymen and senators seeking re-election lost, the highest percentage among 11 Western states in 1990. None of the lawmakers who voted against the pension during the regular session lost.

Even if a budget-and-taxes compromise is reached this weekend by legislative leaders -- before the Nevada Supreme Court on Monday considers Guinn's petition to force legislators to balance the budget -- voters may not be in a forgiving mood in next year's elections if they feel they've been jerked around by the politicians.

A good argument can be made that the lawmakers' failure to do their jobs this year, a situation created principally by Assembly Republicans, has the potential to cause just as much damage, if not more, at the polls in 2004 as the 1989 Legislature's actions caused in the 1990 election.

Parents -- whether they're Republicans, Democrats or independents -- care deeply about the quality of education their children receive. If the gridlock continues much longer, and begins to really hurt the schools, blame will fall most heavily on the Republicans.

Most of the time, people can't identify their state senator or assemblyman if asked. People don't pay attention to state government the way they do to local government and Congress.

But when voters do know who their state representative is, it's usually a pretty good sign that there is a controversy brewing, and that spells nothing but trouble for a state lawmaker. It can cause even more headaches for a freshman legislator who hasn't had the time to build a record of legislative accomplishments that can counterbalance the problems caused by a controversial stand. That should worry Southern Nevada Republicans in the Assembly who are freshmen -- Walter Andonov, Chad Christensen, Garn Mabey and Valerie Weber.

For Josh Griffin and Joe Hardy, the only two Republican assemblymen from Southern Nevada who have voted for tax increases to balance the state's budget, the days can seem lonely, since only they and two other of the Assembly's 19 Republicans have voted to raise taxes. While the other Assembly Republicans from Southern Nevada who have opposed tax increases may take comfort in their number, if this budget impasse isn't resolved soon, they are the ones who could be feeling lonely come Election Day.

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