Pop Goes the Year

Kirk Baird

Monday, Dec. 29, 2003 | 9:11 a.m.

Sometimes to look ahead you have to look to the past.

At least, that's the theory for these pop-culture predictions for 2004.

Rather than blindly stabbing at possible trends and fortunes and misfortunes as I did a year ago, for 2004 I've decided to narrow the focus on some notable names of this year.

Read on and see what the coming 366 days -- counting leap day -- have in store for these newsmakers.

Paris Hilton and Nicole Richie: This party girl duo -- heir to the Hilton family fortune and daughter of '80s pop icon Lionel Richie, respectively -- are now known less for being lucky enough to be born into wealth and more for their reckless antics.

First came 22-year-old Hilton's now-infamous sexploits, which were videotaped by a former boyfriend and leaked to the Internet. (Stupid celebrities. Will you never learn?) Meanwhile, Richie, 21, made news of her own for her arrest and subsequent rehab time for heroin possession.

Then there is their prime-time showcase, "The Simple Life." Watching these two clueless socialites skank around a small, rural Arkansas town in Fox's fish-out-of-water reality series is, admittedly, perversely pleasurable.

As with most of Fox's (infrequent) hits, however, the network is sure to run this show into the ground. Fox has already repeated many of the episodes -- even offering a marathon for the holidays. The twosome are also hosting Fox's "America's Party," airing live on New Year's Eve from Las Vegas. Overexposure, sure. But when you've got Daddy's millions coming your way, does it matter?

Bill Murray: Before I tally Murray's 2004 fortune, first a confession. I've seen almost every movie Murray has made -- even "The Razor's Edge." So when I predict big things for Murray this year, it comes with a personal bias attached.

Murray will -- and should -- receive his first Oscar nod for his brilliantly low-key performance in "Lost in Translation." The former "Saturday Night Live" great also reteams with Wes Anderson for the film "The Life Aquatic," playing a Jacques Cousteau-type oceanographer. While I do have deep reservations about his involvement in the upcoming "Garfield" movie, providing the voice of the titular character, if anyone can pull off an insincere, sarcastic feline, it's Murray.

Michael Jackson: This year has been anything but pleasant for Jackson. The singer-songwriter is now best known for almost anything but his music.

His year was highlighted by charges of child molestation and an increasingly grotesque appearance due to countless plastic surgeries, most of which he denies having. To top it off, his greatest hits compilation, "Number Ones," tanked, not even going gold, once unthinkable for the self-proclaimed King of Pop.

Even if Jackson wins in the courtroom, beating the child molestation charge, he's all but lost in the court of public opinion. For Jackson fans, it's best to give "Off the Wall" or "Thriller" a spin and remember the good old days.

"Queer Eye for the Straight Guy": The surprise hit of the year, this summertime series on Bravo became a mini cultural phenomenon. The premise -- five gay men coming to the aid of a hapless straight man -- is entertaining enough, but it's the amusing and sometimes witty comments, along with the tips that make this show worth tuning into. (Who knew shaving upward on the neck and against the grain was a mistake?)

"Queer Eye" did so well for Bravo, its parent company, NBC, transplanted the show to its prime-time lineup periodically. Now that "Queer Eye" returned in November with a 40-show commitment, its ratings have dropped -- which is to be expected, given the show debuted against summer reruns.

Plus, there was the oversaturation factor, as the "Queer Eye" guys seemed to pop up nightly on a talk or awards show. Still, the show remains entertaining enough. Plus, let's face it, there are still plenty of fashion-impaired straight men to keep them busy for years to come.

Rupert Boneham from "Survivor: Pearl Islands": Perhaps the greatest "Survivor" contestant of them all, the Big Guy from Indianapolis had millions tuning in each week to watch him catch fish, win challenges and keep the members of his tribe in check.

Unfortunately, the power apparently became too much for Boneham and he got cocky, and was subsequently cast out in a "Survivor" coup that left him bewildered and much of America in mourning.

Have no fear. Boneham is all but guaranteed to return in "Survivor All-Stars," the upcoming installment of the reality series. "All-Stars" reportedly will also mark the return of such fan favorites as Colby Donaldson, Ethan Zohn and Rudy Boesch, as well as despised Jerri Manthey and Rob Cesternino. Personally, I can't wait to see Boneham square off against Richard Hatch.

Summer Movies: "Spider-Man 2," "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" and "Shrek 2" head an otherwise lackluster summer. Sure, Spidey and Harry can be counted on to rake in some major millions if either film lives up to the promise of its trailer, but I don't think the "Shrek" sequel will prove nearly as popular as the first film.

A possible dark horse, however, is "Troy." The film treatment of Homer's epic tale is sure to have enough testost- erone-infused battle scenes for the men, while a cast that includes Brad Pitt and Orlando Bloom should draw the women. Plus, the recent popularity of sword-and-sandal ("Gladiator") and fantasy ("Lord of the Rings") bodes well for "Troy."

Arnold Schwarzenegger: Despite all the jokes, actor-turned-politician Schwarzenegger is the only one laughing at the moment. Of course, the newly elected governor of California has quite a budget battle ahead of him -- perhaps more treacherous even than facing the alien Predator or cyborg Terminators. Still, with early kudos coming in from Republicans and Democrats alike, Schwarzenegger might prove to be a better politician than actor. Faint praise indeed.

Celebrity couples Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore. Gwyneth Paltrow and Chris Martin. Justin Timberlake and Cameron Diaz. J.Lo and Ben Affleck. It was a banner year for celebrity gossip. Still, the strangest coupling has to be "The Bachelorette's" Trista Rehn and Ryan Sutter. They remain the only married couple brought together by the miracle of network programming. How long their marriage lasts remains to be seen. Of course, if there's a way ABC could televise their divorce, you can bet we'd be seeing it during sweeps week.