LV job growth will be strong

Kevin Rademacher

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2003 | 11:12 a.m.

Employment in Southern Nevada is expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2004 as the Las Vegas Valley continues to distance itself from the economic downturn of the past few years.

The growth rate also sets Southern Nevada apart from the rest of the country, which has a projected job growth in 2004 of 1.5 percent according to a recent study by the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Southern Nevada's growth rate will bring the number of jobs to nearly 781,000 and will comfortably keep pace with predicted population growth of 4.2 percent, said a study released this morning by the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research.

The biggest surprise in the projections is that the job growth will be driven largely by construction, not gaming, said Keith Schwer, director of the CBER and author of the 2004 Economic Outlook.

"It's a little bit unusual, and it gives the sense that diversification does stimulate the economy," Schwer said.

The gaming and tourism industries have been slow to return to pre-2001 levels, he said. That sluggish pace was driven largely by a national economic malaise and concerns over international travel following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, problems that slowed the flow of foreign visitors.

Concerns related to 9/11, however, were offset in the local economy by low interest rates that continued to spark a construction boom.

Schwer pointed to an 8.6 percent growth rate in the local construction industry for October, 2003. In the same month, the tourism industry reported no growth.

Schwer added that 10 percent of the local employment base comes from the construction industry.

"That's twice the national average," he said.

While the gaming and tourism industries are not producing a significant number of new jobs, they continue to expand.

Visitor volume is expected to jump 1.8 percent in 2004, reaching 36.2 million. Gaming revenue should hit 8 billion, up 3.4 percent over 2003.

While the projections are modest for 2004, Schwer said that pace could surge in 2005 when Steve Wynn is scheduled to open his new Las Vegas megaresort, Wynn Las Vegas.

For 2005, Schwer said Wynn's project should drive a 3.2 percent increase in visitor volume and a 4.1 percent increase in gaming revenue.

That gaming surge also is expected to drive an overall 2005 employment surge of 4.4 percent in Clark County.