Columnist Dean Juipe: Rebels face ‘must win’ right away

Dean Juipe

Friday, Aug. 29, 2003 | 9:18 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

It's awfully early for a "must win" game, but that's the situation for UNLV as it opens the football season tonight with Toledo at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Sure, the Rebels could overcome a first-game loss and have a decent season, just as they could collapse after a first-game win. But the fact of the matter is that this game with Toledo will not only have its telltale aspects but is likely to be a barometer of what's to come.

It's crucial to UNLV from a number of perspectives, particularly in terms of confidence.

The Rebels are, after all, coming off back-to-back losing seasons. And no matter how assured of themselves they claim to be, a team that hasn't won more than it has lost has a fragile quality to it until proven otherwise.

The Rebels also need to show a skeptical community that they're headed in the right direction. Tonight's game isn't expected to draw anywhere near a capacity crowd and there are at least three reasons for it: it's on national TV, which certainly cuts into the live gate; it's against an unheralded although solid opponent; and it's a Friday night in August.

A fourth explanation, that the Rebels aren't expected to be much better than a .500 team, obviously also plays a role when the crowd isn't expected to exceed 20,000.

Any chance UNLV has for having a winning season might be riding on this game. Likewise, any chance UNLV has for capturing the public's fancy may be riding on it as well.

A loss would send an unfavorable message to everyone involved.

What makes the game even more challenging than it may seem from a casual distance is that Toledo is always decent and sometimes downright strong, given the Rockets' Mid-American Conference limitations. Last season Toledo beat UNLV 38-21, won the MAC West title, went 9-5 and appeared in a bowl game.

Toledo has now had nine consecutive winning seasons and been to a bowl game in two consecutive years. The Rockets are also somewhat intact from a year ago, having lost only 15 lettermen (after losing 23 a year earlier).

Bettors taking an interest in the game should also note that Toledo is 7-1 both straight up and against the spread in its past eight openers. Conversely, UNLV has won only one of its past eight openers.

The line has been bet down to "pick 'em" in recent days as bettors have shied away from Toledo for a couple of reasons: the possible impact of the desert heat and the uncertainty of the Rockets' quarterbacks. They'll have two guys, Bruce Gradkowski and Cedric Stevens, trying to replace one, Brian Jones, who graduated after a great senior year.

Despite John Robinson's denials, look for the Rebels to test the new Toledo quarterbacks with an assortment of blitz and pressure schemes that may seem a bit out of the ordinary.

Truth is, UNLV needs to exploit the speed advantages it may hold against any and all opponents this season. The Rebels may be bigger than they were a year ago but they're still not real big, and quickness -- and tremendous depth at running back -- are by far their greatest assets.

This is a difficult first game for both teams. But the difference between Toledo and UNLV is that the Rockets should contend for the MAC West title no matter what, while the Rebels have no such guarantee in the Mountain West.