Columnist Jon Ralston: What’s next for Gibbons

Saturday, Aug. 23, 2003 | 1:41 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

IF THEY HAVE rabbits' feet, they are clutching them this weekend. If they believe in God, they are hoping he's a partisan and praying to Him this weekend. If they believe in omens, they are searching for them this weekend.

Nevada Democrats (and maybe a Republican or two I can think of) are on edge as they await the most significant announcement of the incipient political season, gratified by the likelihood that Rep. Jim Gibbons will announce this week that he will not challenge Sen. Harry Reid, but worried that the mercurial congressman might change his mind before the cameras begin to whir.

Gibbons intended to declare his re-election intentions Monday. If the congressman follows through on his plan, refusing to be wooed by any last-minute GOP entreaties, including a possible call from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., Democrats will be joyous and national Republicans will be disconsolate. But, ironically, at least a few state elephants will not be hanging their trunks in depression and a few Democrats may have reason to believe that the ephemeral high will be followed by a Campaign '04 hangover.

First, a word or two on why Gibbons, if he sticks to his plan and has not pulled off a brilliant feint, will not run and then a look at the effect on the long-term political dynamic.

Gibbons, I have always believed, could defeat Reid. In fact, he could be the perfect candidate to take on the senior senator.

Gibbons is a superb, almost chameleon-like campaigner; Reid would rather be handling arcana on the Senate floor than have to glad-hand. Gibbons is the father of the anti-tax movement in Nevada; Reid has voted for a tax or a billion. Gibbons is a monster in Washoe County and rural Nevada; Reid is seen as monstrous in the cow counties and only survived two close Senate calls (against Jim Santini in 1986 and especially John Ensign in 1998) because of the GOP contenders' poor showing in the North.

The race would be a toss-up going in, with perhaps a slight edge to Reid because of his ravenous fund-raising, ruthless tactics and resilient history. I think, though, that Gibbons, who did not have the support of his wife, Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, for the race and who surely was not encouraged on the money trail, where Reid had squeezed many local and national donors, decided that entering a contest that would be as nasty and vicious as any he had encountered just wasn't worth the risk. (I'm also persuaded that his long-term, financial security -- Gibbons is not a wealthy man -- also came into play, inadvertently revealed when he made some off-the-cuff remarks comparing congressional pensions to state Supreme Court pensions a few weeks back.)

So if the eleventh-hour pressure does not sway him, Gibbons has decided to take the path of lesser resistance to re-election, a path that could lead him to aggregating seniority in the House and/or the governorship in '06. Gibbons likely will have his "Education First" ballot initiative to run with should he decide to take over for Kenny Guinn. Or, with his affinity for intelligence and homeland security issues in the era of terrorism, he could become more of a force in the House and, in a few years, a committee chairman.

Two Republicans who surely were heartened by the news Gibbons does not intend to run were Guinn and Sen. John Ensign. Guinn and Gibbons are not close and the governor was not thrilled by Mr. Anti-Tax sniping at him for being Mr. Pro-Tax during the travesties that were Sessions '03. Ensign feels more of a kinship with his senatorial brother than his partisan comrade and has essentially said he would do the minimum if Gibbons were to run.

Gibbons' decision could, paradoxically, help the GOP in Campaign '04 and make the Democrats' challenge even more Sisyphean.

The Senate race essentially is over. No other Republican, barring something unforeseen, can defeat Reid. Secretary of State Dean Heller might have an outside chance, but he would rather have taken Gibbons' congressional seat and has a cordial relationship with the senior senator. None of the other constitutional officers has a shot, nor does any legislator. So that leaves it up to an obvious sacrificial lamb or some Lake Tahoe multimillionaire suffering from ennui to try to buy the seat.

So what energizes the Democrats in Campaign '04 without a real Senate race? Rep. Shelley Berkley can't lose in her district and the Democrats have no giants ready to step in against Rep. Jon Porter. So the top of the ticket will be weak.

Reid has helped assemble a solid party structure, but revving it up will be difficult. Ironically, some of those initiative efforts pushed by Republicans, especially the ones to ban gaming contributions and prohibit public employees from serving, could energize core Democratic interests (hello, Culinary workers and teachers). But that's straw-grasping.

And don't forget, without the burden of a real race, Gibbons is free to push his anti-tax message and catalyze the faithful to turn out in a presidential year where George W. Bush, despite his Yucca Mountain vulnerability, remains popular here. Republicans will turn out in Campaign '04 to vote against taxes and for Bush -- they will be motivated, but will the Democrats?

So maybe, if you buy the logic, Gibbons plans to engage in a totally selfless act, to not challenge Reid because in the long run it's better for the Republican Party if he doesn't. Maybe that's what he ought to say if he gets a phone call this weekend and the president is on the line urging him to change his mind.com