Welfare rolls may near record by 2005

Wednesday, April 23, 2003 | 9:39 a.m.

CARSON CITY -- Although the number of welfare recipients in Nevada has decreased in the last month, it will likely start to rise again and could approach the all-time high by June 2005, State Welfare Administrator Nancy Ford told legislators Tuesday.

Ford presented newly revised figures indicating that the number of people on public assistance will be an average of 35,431 next fiscal year and 41,545 in 2004-05. The record high for the state was 42,703 people on welfare in March 1995.

Ford's new projections are about 5,000 people less each year than Gov. Kenny Guinn's initial projections, which would mean savings of $5 million. In his budget, Guinn had projected an increase in the welfare numbers to 40,454 next fiscal year and to 46,807 the following year.

The change in the numbers was one of the reasons some lawmakers at Tuesday's Senate-Assembly budget subcommittee gave for their skepticism about Ford's new figures. They said they doubt the welfare population would rise as much as Ford is predicting. Sen. Ray Rawson, R-Las Vegas, chairman of the subcommittee, said, "We're headed in a direction we were not expecting."

Rawson told Ford, "We don't want to see this go off the charts," referring to the welfare cases. Ford replied, "We don't want to go off the charts. But we don't want to short ourselves."

Ford said the economy is still shaky and that concerns about war, terrorism and SARS could affect tourism in the state. The population continues to grow as well, she said.

Ford suggested the estimated $5 million saved over the two fiscal years from the new lower projections should be placed in a reserve to handle any unexpected emergencies.

At the beginning of fiscal 2002, the division had a $22 million reserve but that has been spent down because the number of welfare cases rose after the tourism industry tanked in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

As a result, "we no longer have a cushion," Ford said. Rawson asked Ford what would happen if the Legislature didn't provide the full amount requested for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. She said the division would pull money from the 2004-05 budget to pay for the costs in 2003-04.

Rawson called it a "pay now or pay later scenario."

The proposed budget for the next two fiscal years for the TANF program is now $141.8 million, down from the initial $153.4 million. The cost is shared by the federal and state governments.

Charles Duarte, director of the state's Medicaid program, told the subcommittee that an $11.6 million supplemental appropriation is needed to get the program through the end of this fiscal year. The program, financed by the state and federal government, pays the cost for medical care for the needy.

He also said the program will need about $10 million more in the next two fiscal years than is allocated in Guinn's budget.

Part of the reason is that rates paid to HMOs to take care of patients are going to rise, he said. And the number of illegal immigrants who are covered for emergency care under Medicaid is increasing.

The average cost per illegal immigrant covered by this program is $1,883. Duarte said Medicaid covers only emergency care for these non-citizens.

An average of 342 non-citizens get emergency care every month in Nevada. That is expected to rise to 648 next fiscal year and to 798 in 2005.

Rawson suggested that medical care for non-citizens should be a federal responsibility and not shared with the states.

"These figures need to go to Washington," Rawson said. But he added he was not optimistic there would be any immediate changes on the federal end.