April rebound predicted

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Monday, April 21, 2003 | 9:52 a.m.

NEW YORK -- A key indicator of where economic activity in the United States is heading fell in March, but preliminary data for April suggest a turnaround.

The New York-based Conference Board today said its Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell by 0.2 percent last month to 110.6, pushed down by worries over higher oil prices, the war and potential terrorist attacks. The result was in line with analysts' expectations.

But the Conference Board said the bigger threat to economic stimulation comes from consumers' lower expectations, raising "the specter of a fall-off in consumption growth."

"This is significant because without much investment or export growth, only consumption has been fueling the economy," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.