Columnist Dean Juipe: Expect an Oscar-winning performance

Dean Juipe

Friday, Sept. 13, 2002 | 9:17 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

You, the reader, want a column with conviction. You want a strongly worded statement as to why Oscar De La Hoya or Fernando Vargas will win their Saturday fight at Mandalay Bay.

You deserve it, and you've come to expect it. But that doesn't mean you're going to get it, because this is a fight that truly could go either way.

I like De La Hoya to win and I'll say that right up front. But would I bet on it? No. It's a little too uncertain.

De La Hoya himself doesn't seem overly concerned and has almost flippantly said he'll knock out his younger rival within six rounds. But he's also a guy with a good poker face who has been known to posture and masquerade when, in truth, he may be holding as little as a pair.

In fact, there have been times when De La Hoya comes across as a chronic liar or teller of tall tales. For instance, each and every trainer he has had -- and there have been a bunch of them, including Floyd Mayweather Sr. who's with him now -- is routinely praised to the high heavens by De La Hoya, even though he inevitably tires of them and sends them packing.

Like a man who says "I've never been better" 365 days a year when asked how he's doing, the Golden Boy doesn't always follow the Golden Rule. He'll bend the truth when he feels it's appropriate.

But if his hands are healthy -- a wrist injury caused this fight to be postponed from May 4 -- and if his desire is there in spite of doing this for years, having a new wife and, perhaps, wanting to retain his Hollywood features, then he does hold a few advantages.

There is little question that De La Hoya is the more skilled and naturally gifted of the two fighters. He is, as it's said in boxing circles, technically sound.

He also may have picked up a trick from Mayweather that will come in handy, and those in attendance or watching on a screen somewhere can expect to see him angle his shoulders toward his target, as opposed to standing square. It's the one nuance he has added to his arsenal, so he'll at least give it a try on a live body to check its effectiveness.

De La Hoya may also be quicker than Vargas and he certainly will connect with more jabs. He should get the better of the punch-count stats.

But for all of that and the immense wealth of his experience in fights of this magnitude, De La Hoya is neither an undefeated fighter nor one who is assured of completing his career without another loss. He has tasted defeat and could taste it again.

Vargas, likewise, has also lost and there are those who believe his five-knockdown defeat at the hands of Felix Trinidad has left him as damaged goods. But he has one overriding trait that qualifies as a terrific asset: Fearless determination.

He has repeatedly said he'll win this fight or die trying, and anyone who knows anything about him is taking him at his word. His relative youth and his street-fighter's mentality should serve him well.

But this is more than simply a test of wills. It's skills and wills, and if De La Hoya can match Vargas when it comes to the latter he figures to prevail by his strengths in the former.

Yet there are no guarantees, beyond the obvious: As far as Las Vegas goes, this is the fight of the year.