Columnist Jon Ralston: Post-primary analysis is absurd

Friday, Sept. 6, 2002 | 5:40 a.m.

For instance, amid all the chatter about the voters striking back against the politics of anointment (how could Richard Bunker have rid Las Vegas of the mob but couldn't swat away Dennis Nolan?) and the clucking about the Wally Cox-like political muscle of the religious right /Question 2/LDS caucus (Where was God when you needed him, Tom Christensen?), perhaps we've overlooked these messages, too:

If you mess with the strip clubs, you will be crushed (district attorney hopeful Abbi Silver).

If you pretend to be both a conservative Republican and a labor lover in the same election, you cannot lose (County Commission candidate Mark James).

The little guy can win -- literally (the diminutive Nolan in an open Senate seat).

A governor's endorsement (state Senate hopeful Barbara Cegavske) can defeat a governor's endorsement (her opponent, Christensen).

Sen. John Ensign's endorsement means nothing (Silver).

Ensign's endorsement means a lot (judicial aspirant Valerie Adair).

The voters don't like being told who to vote for -- anointments lose (Bunker).

The voters like being told who to vote for -- anointments win (James, sheriff's contender Bill Young).

Grass-roots beats money (Assembly hopeful Francis Allen, Nolan, Assemblywoman Sharron Angle).

Money always wins (Young, James, Myrna Williams, many, many others).

The right had a bad night (Tim Cory loses to James, Christensen loses).

The right had a good night (Assembly contender Valerie Weber crushes David Griego, Garn Mabey beats Merle Berman, David Roger's landslide over Silver).

Judicial discipline rulings don't matter (Judge Don Mosley).

Crime pays (cacti thief and public administrator candidate Dan Ahlstrom).

Carpetbaggers lose (Assembly candidate Earlene Forsythe).

Carpetbaggers win (Allen).

See how ridiculous this can be?

It's dangerous enough in general elections. But in primaries, turnout is so low (25 percent in Clark County) and the internal dynamics of races in smaller political subdivisions can be so different that drawing conclusions or pronouncing harbingers for the general is just silly.

This same kind of facile nonsense, I'm afraid, awaits us in the general election season as my Fourth Estate colleagues will begin whining about "negative campaigning" and "mudslinging," terms that have lost any meaning. There is no nuance, no distinction between tough criticism of someone's record and personal attacks or venomous insinuations.

How productive it would be if everyone -- the media, the voters and, best of all, the candidates -- would consider these questions (among many) for the general instead of the superficial blather that has characterized the post-primary analysis:

Fessing up: When I made those predictions last Sunday, did I mention how dicey it is to try to display oracular talents in a low-turnout primary? The results were, ahem, mixed. The good news: I was nearly dead-on in the sheriff's race and had James defeating Cory in that County Commission contest. Add in my gamble paying off on Cegavske's Senate bid and I was doing pretty well. But I was a disaster in the rest of the legislative races.

Like everyone else, I missed Nolan's stunning upset and I managed an abysmal one for seven in the Assembly races I chose. I sure hope the Pundits Association Of America doesn't revoke my membership. Did I mention, though, that I picked Guinn and Williams to win? Now that's impressive.