Columnist Dean Juipe: Pats, Eagles good plays on the over

Dean Juipe

Friday, Sept. 6, 2002 | 9:25 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

I'll always remember an e-mail I received a year ago after a column that surveyed National Football League over/under win totals and offered New England at over six wins as the best play on the board.

"You're the reason I never listen to mainstream sportswriters when it comes to gambling," the e-mailer remarked before concluding with an additional slap in the face that can't be reprinted here.

Both my prediction and the respondent's complaint were issued before a game had been played, meaning that neither of us had any idea what would really happen as the season played out. But I liked the Patriots to win seven games, even if they were only 5-11 the previous year.

Of course New England exceeded even the most wildly optimistic forecast, as it went 11-5 during the regular season and finished the season on a nine-game winning streak that included a victory over St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI.

So permit me a "ha-ha" and let's move on to look at this year's over/under totals, as posted at Caesars Palace. If there's a drawback to doing business there on this popular wager, it's that each total comes with a plus or minus, as opposed to being even money either way.

For instance, the victory total for St. Louis is 11.5 and it's a minus 145 for the over and a plus 110 for the under. It's a cop-out by the book in a way, but so be it.

And for the sake of the brief discussion here, let's ignore the plus/minus factor and look at the win totals by themselves.

Would you believe I like New England again? And Philadelphia, both on the over.

The Patriots are in one of these "get no respect" phases that occasionally confront even the best of teams. Super Bowl champions or not, they're up at Caesars at a mere 8.5.

Beyond the momentum of last season's success, they're also opening a new stadium and have a reasonable strength of schedule. While they might very well open with a loss Monday night to Pittsburgh, they should win the following three weeks (vs. the New York Jets, Kansas City and San Diego) and the closing portion of their schedule looks easy.

They could win 11, maybe even 12 games, whether Tom Brady repeats his fantastic series of performances from the 2001 season or not.

Philadelphia, up at 10, is also an attractive play on the over.

The Eagles were 11-5 last season before reaching the NFC title game and there are those who believe they're a potential league champion this time around. While 10 is a fair number of victories, the Eagles might very well go 5-0 to open the season (vs. Tennessee, Washington, Dallas, Houston and Jacksonville), making the quest for 11 easy to imagine.

Bettors should also consider taking the under on the victory total of some bad teams, yet bear in mind that the last three Super Bowl champions each had losing seasons the year before. Nonetheless, teams such as Carolina (5.5), Detroit (6), Baltimore (7.5), Cincinnati (7) and Houston (4.5) may struggle to reach the numbers next to their names up on the board.

But, remember, everyone who follows the NFL fancies himself as an expert, so make your own decisions and bet accordingly. Just don't be too quick to criticize someone who's only offering a little friendly advice.