Two polls contradict each other in House campaign

Erin Neff

Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2002 | 9:50 a.m.

Two polls released Monday by the leading candidates for the 1st Congressional District paint a very different picture of the race.

Incumbent Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., released a poll from The Mellman Group showing her ahead of Republican challenger Lynette Boggs McDonald 51 to 30 with 19 percent undecided.

Boggs McDonald, a Las Vegas city councilwoman, released a poll from Public Opinion Strategies showing her trailing by just 46 to 38 percent.

"With a narrowing eight-point deficit and a weak incumbent, Boggs McDonald has the potential to surprise the pundits come Election Day," GOP pollster Glen Bolger wrote in his poll memo hyped in the campaign's release as "Bolger never lies."

Bolger's poll was conducted last week of 300 district voters. It has a margin of error of 6 percent. The poll is also a stark contrast to a similar poll Bolger took in July showing Boggs McDonald trailing 50 to 29 percent.

The Mark Mellman poll conducted for Berkley this weekend surveyed 400 voters and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Mellman polled only those who said they were almost certain or very likely to vote.

Respondents said they would were strong in their voting for Berkley 39 percent of the time compared with 22 percent who were strong Boggs McDonald voters. The total 51 to 30 percent difference includes voters who are leaning toward either candidate.