Experts mixed on early-voting success

By Timothy Pratt

Friday, Oct. 18, 2002 | 10:01 a.m.

As early voting begins Saturday, opinion is divided on what effect it may have on turnout, how it influences campaigns and who it benefits.

But one thing's for sure -- a lot of people take advantage of the convenience of being able to vote for two weeks before Election Day -- 33 percent statewide in the primaries this year, and the same amount in the 2000 general election.

In Clark County, the numbers are even higher -- 44 percent in each of the last two elections. Early voting has been in place since 1994.

But does early voting increase overall turnout? It depends on whom you ask.

"What I have seen suggests that early voting doesn't (increase turnout)," said Michael Bowers, professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

"It may make it easier for people to vote, but that doesn't mean more people vote."

Andres Ramirez, a political consultant, doesn't agree.

"If you look at the percentage of the population voting since 1994, it's gone steadily up. These were people who generally don't vote ... who were registered without voting before," he said.

As for the tone of this year's election season -- complete with mudslinging and charges from all sides -- it is also hard to measure the role of early voting.

"Early voting may lead to what I call 'voter's remorse,' " Bowers said.

"Who knows how these campaigns will play out in the next two weeks? Every race being fought this year may bring some sort of surprise ... so a voter may vote one way and then find something out about a candidate two weeks later that he doesn't like."

But Pam Egan, executive director of the Nevada Democratic Party, suggested that some voters may go to the polls early to avoid the sharp rhetoric of certain campaigns.

"Maybe some voters who are turned off by the negative campaigning vote early to shut the whole thing out," she said.

"They know the issues and can cast their vote without worrying about it anymore."

Steve Wark, chairman of the Clark County Republican Party, said that strategy may not work, however.

"A lot of campaigns aren't organized enough to eliminate people who have early voted ... so they're probably still going to get hit by the same abuse from candidates as someone who votes on Election Day."

Both party leaders said that early voting has changed the way they do the business of politics.

"With so much of the electorate voting before election day ... it's crucial for campaigns to pay attention to that and hit the ground running on Saturday," Egan said.

"Our function is now to get people moving at the polls instead of dropping bombshells."

Wark said that early voting costs more.

"(Early voting) ends up costing campaigns more money, since you have to run two powerful waves of get-out-the-vote campaigns," he said.

"(And) with negative campaigning, you have to have enough money to keep it in front of your ongoing voting public. So early voting just makes it more expensive."